Market Overview for Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) on 2025-09-05

• ETHJPY surged to 664,613 after a sharp morning rally but fell back to 631,943, with mixed momentum.
• Volatility spiked midday as price dropped 9.4%, with volume surging to 282.3k ETH.
• RSI overbought in the morning, reversed to oversold by close, signaling exhausted bullish and bearish waves.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the breakout, then expanded sharply post-noon.
• Key support at 630k and 627k tested, suggesting potential for further downside.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 641,044 on 2025-09-04 at 16:00 ET and closed at 656,065 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET, hitting a 24-hour high of 664,613 and a low of 629,308. Total trading volume reached 4,012.09 ETH, with notional turnover of approximately ¥2.64 billion over the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

ETHJPY displayed a volatile 24-hour profile with a morning bullish breakout and an afternoon retracement. The price formed a key bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the rally near 664,613 before reversing sharply. A significant support level was identified at 630,000, where the price found a short-term floor after the midday sell-off. A doji appeared near 637,000, signaling indecision in the market after the sharp drop.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over multiple times, reflecting a churning market. The 20 SMA briefly crossed above the 50 SMA in the early morning, setting up a short-lived bullish crossover before the trend reversed. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain in a long-term bullish alignment, though the 100-day MA may offer near-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged in the early hours, peaking at a strong positive divergence before the price reversal. The signal line crossed the MACD at 06:00 ET, triggering a bearish divergence. The RSI reached overbought territory above 75 early in the morning, then dropped sharply into oversold territory near 28 by the close. This indicated exhaustion in both the bullish and bearish waves, hinting at potential consolidation ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted in the early morning hours, with price trading tightly between the Bollinger Bands. The morning breakout occurred just as the bands widened, signaling the start of a strong move. However, the afternoon sell-off brought the price well below the lower band, highlighting a significant volatility expansion and a bearish reversal. The bands now sit at 648,000 (mid) and 632,000 (lower), suggesting a key support target.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply between 12:00 and 14:30 ET, with the largest spike occurring at 14:30 ET when the price dropped 9.4% on 238.9k ETH traded. This spike in volume was accompanied by a large notional turnover of ¥1.55 billion, confirming the bearish reversal. However, volume declined significantly after 15:00 ET, suggesting a lack of follow-through in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the morning high of 664,613 to the afternoon low of 629,308 show the price hitting the 61.8% level near 643,000 and the 38.2% level around 651,000. These levels appear to have acted as both support and resistance during the retracement phase. On the 15-minute chart, retracements of sharp intraday moves also highlighted key turning points, especially around 642,000 and 644,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could leverage the Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI extremes. A long entry could be triggered when the RSI dips below 30 and the price retests the 38.2% Fibonacci level. A short entry may be initiated when the RSI exceeds 70 and the price reaches the 61.8% retracement. Stops could be placed below or above the relevant Fib levels, with targets aligned with prior support/resistance or moving averages. Given today’s behavior, this approach might have captured the morning rally and afternoon decline effectively, though it would have required tight risk management due to the rapid swings.