Summary
• Price surged past $3,012 before consolidating below $2,960, forming a bullish engulfing pattern near key resistance.
• Momentum diverged in the late session with RSI showing moderate strength but not overbought territory.
• Volatility expanded midday, with a sharp volume spike confirming the breakout above prior 5-day highs.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price tested the upper band, indicating potential continuation or pullback.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% and 61.8% aligned with recent swing points, suggesting possible short-term targets.
Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $2,943.6 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of $3,048.45, with a low of $2,913.28, closing at $2,936.49 by 12:00 ET. Total volume was 245,684.57 ETH, with a notional turnover of $721.43 million over 24 hours.
Structure & Formations
The 5-minute candlestick data reveals a strong bullish reversal pattern near $2,935, marked by a large engulfing candle at 09:30 ET and a doji at 11:15 ET, suggesting indecision. The price has bounced off a clear support level at $2,920 and has been testing resistance at $3,047, which coincides with a prior swing high and a key Fibonacci level.
Moving Averages
On the 5-minute chart, the 20-period MA is currently above the 50-period MA, signaling a potential continuation of the recent bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is crossing above the 200-period MA, hinting at a broader bull trend forming.
Momentum and Volatility
The MACD crossed above the zero line during the early morning hours, indicating growing bullish momentum. RSI briefly approached overbought levels in the midday session, but retreated to neutral ground, suggesting the rally may still have room but lacks confirmation of strong follow-through. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout above $3,012, and price is now consolidating near the upper band, indicating potential for a continuation or a pullback.
Volume and Turnover
Volume surged during the breakout at $3,012, confirming the move. However, volume has since declined, indicating reduced conviction in the current rally. Notional turnover spiked during the morning hours, but the price has since retraced without strong follow-through, pointing to potential consolidation ahead.
Fibonacci Retracements
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent swing from $2,913.28 to $3,048.45 is at $2,979, where the price stalled in the afternoon. The 38.2% level is at $3,000, which has been a recent area of resistance and consolidation. The next key Fibonacci level to watch is at $2,960, a possible short-term target for the next leg up.
The market appears to be in a consolidation phase, with price hovering near key Fibonacci and moving average levels. A sustained move above $3,047 could signal a new bullish phase, while a breakdown below $2,920 may trigger a short-term pullback. Investors should remain cautious of potential volatility swings as the market tests these key levels.
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