Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT): October 30, 2025 (12:00 ET – 12:00 ET)

• Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) traded in a volatile 24-hour range, opening at $3966.89 and closing at $3874.14, with a high of $4018.11 and a low of $3760.67.
• A sharp sell-off emerged after 18:45 ET, with price falling below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a prior bullish swing, suggesting key support is at risk.
• RSI reached oversold territory near 30 by the end of the session, while MACD turned bearish with a bearish crossover and diverging price action.
• Volatility expanded significantly as Bollinger Bands widened post-18:45 ET, and notional turnover spiked during the sell-off, reaching a peak at $3892.34.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $3966.89 and closed at $3874.14 within the 24-hour window, with a high of $4018.11 and a low of $3760.67. Total volume was approximately 208,948.08, and notional turnover reached $824.5 million. The session was marked by a sharp sell-off after 18:45 ET, with price dropping below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a prior bullish swing, indicating a loss of short-term bearish control.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data showed a distinct bearish breakdown pattern emerging after 18:45 ET, marked by a long lower shadow and a bearish engulfing pattern at the session’s peak. This pattern confirmed the reversal of prior bullish momentum. Key support levels appeared at $3850, $3800, and $3750, based on prior consolidation and Fibonacci levels. A doji formed at $3902.74 (00:0000 ET), indicating indecision and setting the stage for the subsequent breakdown.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downward trend. The 200-period moving average on the daily chart acted as a critical resistance level that was breached early in the session, confirming a broader bearish shift in sentiment.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish with a crossover below zero and a divergence between price and the histogram, indicating waning bullish momentum. RSI approached oversold conditions near 30 by the end of the session, suggesting the sell-off could stabilize if a bounce occurs near $3850–$3800. However, the RSI reading was not strong enough to signal a reversal, making a short-term rebound uncertain.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after the breakdown at 18:45 ET, signaling increased volatility. Price remained below the lower band for several hours, reinforcing bearish control. The width of the bands suggested a period of consolidation or a potential reversal may occur if price closes above the mid-band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown at 18:45 ET, confirming the move lower. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reaching a peak of $3892.34. This volume and turnover divergence occurred during the breakdown and reinforced the bearish narrative. A lack of follow-through buying pressure during the rally near $3900 suggests a weak market structure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels played a pivotal role during the sell-off. The 61.8% retracement level at $3855.55 was a key level that failed to hold. The 50% retracement at $3873.26 was briefly tested but could serve as a potential support zone in the near term. A break below the 38.2% level at $3893.65 may indicate further downside potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further validate potential reversal signals, a backtesting strategy could be implemented using MACD bottom divergence events. These divergences—where price makes lower lows but MACD does not—can serve as early indicators of bullish exhaustion and possible reversal. A 5-day-hold back-test would assess the effectiveness of holding long positions following such divergences. However, for this to be actionable, we must confirm the correct ticker and exchange. The provided dataset corresponds to Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) and includes adequate historical data for a 5-day-hold strategy, assuming consistent MACD signals are available.