Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) – October 21, 2025

• Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) declined 24 hours to 3884.53, breaking below key support near 3920.
• Momentum remains bearish, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD indicating bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded sharply, with Bollinger Bands widening and volume spiking during the breakdown.
• A Morning Star reversal pattern is not evident in the 15-minute data but may form from current lows.
• A new backtest for a Morning Star strategy is proposed, pending confirmation of the correct ticker symbol.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at 4029.70 on October 20 at 16:00 ET, reached a high of 4041.44, and closed at 3884.53 on October 21 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 3871.47. Total volume reached 184,112.69, and notional turnover was $699,000,000, with increased trading activity observed during the breakdown phase.

Over the past 24 hours, ETHUSDT showed a strong bearish bias, with a key support level at 3920 being decisively broken. The price action included a long bearish candle on October 21 at 04:15 ET, closing at 3884.53. This candle appears to be a continuation of bearish momentum, not a reversal. A potential short-term support area is forming around 3870–3850, which could be a target for further declines. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average has crossed below the 50-period line, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

The RSI on the 15-minute chart has moved into oversold territory, below 30, suggesting potential for a countertrend bounce in the near term. However, the MACD remains bearish, with the histogram expanding downward. This divergence suggests that while short-term traders may find some buying opportunities, the broader trend remains bearish. The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the breakdown, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty.

On the volume front, the 24-hour data shows a notable spike in activity during the late-night ET hours, particularly around 04:15 ET, when the breakdown occurred. This volume confirms the move and suggests strong conviction from sellers. The notional turnover also spiked during this period, reinforcing the volume-driven breakdown. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of 4041.44 to the low of 3871.47 show that the price is currently at the 76.4% level, indicating a possible pause in the bearish move.

Looking ahead, ETHUSDT appears poised to test the 3850–3830 support zone over the next 24 hours. If this level holds, a short-term rebound could be seen, especially if RSI shows a divergence from the price action. However, a break below 3850 could accelerate the bearish momentum and target 3800 as the next key level. Traders should remain cautious and watch for confirmation signals before entering long positions.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtest seeks to evaluate the performance of a “Morning Star” candlestick pattern on a specific asset (ticker “HOLD.P”), using a 5-day holding period. However, the current data source cannot locate this ticker. To proceed, it’s necessary to verify the correct symbol and exchange. If “HOLD.P” is invalid, alternatives such as “HOLD” or a different exchange listing may be required. Once confirmed, the strategy will automatically scan for Morning Star signals since 2022 and backtest its performance with detailed visuals.