Market Overview: Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• ETHUSDT traded in a volatile range, surging to $4,036.46 before retracing toward $3,985.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged during the early New York session before bearish pressure returned.
• Volume spiked during key breakouts and breakdowns, with divergences observed in later hours.
• RSI signaled overbought levels during highs and oversold during lows, aligning with price extremes.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility with price hovering near the upper and lower bands in key swings.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $3,950.39 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET and closed at $4,018.92 on 2025-09-27 12:00 ET, with a high of $4,058.57 and a low of $3,972.28 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 171,989.49 ETH, while total notional turnover reached $688.6 million.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a dynamic 24-hour range, with key support levels forming around $3,972 and $3,985, and resistance clusters at $4,025 and $4,036. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged after a break above $4,020, signaling potential continuation. A bearish harami pattern later in the session at $4,033 suggested a possible reversal. Additionally, a doji at $4,033.19 indicated indecision among traders following a sharp rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) crossed multiple times, indicating a volatile, non-trending environment. The 50-period SMA acted as a dynamic support during the mid-session consolidation phase. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA is currently above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, suggesting a potential bias toward short-term strength.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed alternating bullish and bearish momentum during the session, with the histogram reflecting strong divergences during key price swings. The RSI reached overbought territory above 70 during the $4,036 high, while later dipping into oversold territory below 30 during the $3,985.87 low. This suggests a market that is correcting between extremes and remains in a range-bound state.

Bollinger Bands

Price oscillated between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands multiple times, indicating high volatility. The bands themselves expanded during the morning session and later contracted during a period of consolidation. This volatility contraction may signal an upcoming breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key price moves, particularly at $4,025 and $3,985, with the largest single candle volume of 13,647.34 ETH occurring at $4,025.81. Notional turnover aligned well with price direction during the morning rally but diverged slightly in the afternoon, suggesting some profit-taking and fading of short-term momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the major 15-minute swing from $3,972 to $4,058.57, price retested the 61.8% retracement level at $4,020–$4,025 multiple times. These levels acted as key pivots for both buying and selling pressure, making them relevant for future price action as well.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of strong Fibonacci retests and clear momentum divergence in RSI and MACD, a viable backtest strategy could involve entering long near 61.8% retracement levels (e.g., $4,020–$4,025) with a stop-loss below 38.2% at $4,000 and a target near the upper Bollinger Band. Alternatively, shorting near overbought RSI levels with a stop above a bullish engulfing pattern could offer risk-managed trades. Historical data over 2025’s ETHUSDT swings has shown this pattern yields a positive expectancy when volume confirms price direction.