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Summary
• ETH/USDT dropped from $3440 to $3180, breaching key support levels with bearish momentum.
• High volume observed during pullback, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions, hinting potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction, indicating consolidation ahead.
• Key Fibonacci retracement at $3266 appears to act as a short-term floor.
Market Overview
Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $3354.87, reached a high of $3440.0, a low of $3152.2, and closed at $3192.75 by 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 205,761.03 ETH, with a notional turnover of $661,830,158. The price has been under sustained bearish pressure, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Structure & Formations
Price breached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3266, which had previously held support. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $3440 on heavy volume, followed by a long bearish candle at $3283.66. A potential short-term bottom is forming around $3180–$3200, with a bullish pinbar appearing on the $3192.75 close.
Moving Averages
On the 5-minute chart, price is well below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The daily chart shows
MACD & RSI
The RSI has dipped into oversold territory around 28, signaling a possible near-term bounce. MACD is negative and declining, but the histogram has flattened, which may indicate a slowdown in the bearish move. A bullish crossover on RSI could precede a temporary rebound, though momentum remains bearish.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have been tightening since $3350, indicating a period of low volatility and potential consolidation. Price is currently near the lower band at $3180, which could trigger a mean-reversion bounce. However, a break below the $3150 level could extend the downside further.
Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during the sharp decline from $3440 to $3180, confirming the bearish breakout. Turnover has remained consistent during the consolidation phase, suggesting that market participants are cautious but not yet reversing. A sharp increase in volume during an upward move could signal a short-covering rally.
Fibonacci Retracements
Key Fibonacci levels from the recent $3369–$3440 swing include 38.2% at $3305, 50% at $3237, and 61.8% at $3169. The 61.8% level has now been pierced, with price hovering near $3180. A rebound from this level may test the 50% and 38.2% levels, but a breakdown below $3169 could trigger deeper bearish moves.
A potential short-covering rally could emerge in the near term, especially if the RSI breaks above 30 and volume increases on upward moves. Investors should remain cautious, as the broader trend remains bearish and a retest of key support levels may still be ahead.
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