Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT): 2025-10-10

• Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) broke below a key support level, with heavy selling into the close.
• Volatility expanded sharply during late ET hours, with price dropping nearly 7% from the session high.
• Turnover surged during the 15:30–16:00 ET window, indicating significant bearish participation.
• RSI and MACD signal bearish momentum, with price near the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent rally.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4,298.95 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of $4,392.31 before falling to a low of $4,073.55 by 16:00 ET. The pair closed at $4,102.97 at 12:00 ET, down 4.85%. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 481,666.42 ETH, with notional turnover exceeding $2.08 billion.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below a critical ascending triangle and a prior support level near $4,280. A long bearish engulfing pattern formed at the session high, followed by a large bearish body during the 15:30–16:00 ET candle, signaling strong conviction among sellers. A doji appeared near $4,161.24, indicating potential near-term exhaustion in the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed well below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, with the 50SMA currently at $4,330. On the daily chart, the 50DMA sits at $4,420, the 100DMA at $4,470, and the 200DMA at $4,510. The price is now more than 9% below the 200DMA, reinforcing a bearish tilt in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

The 12:00 ET close marked a bearish crossover on the MACD, with the line crossing below the signal line and trending downward. RSI stands at 27.3, near oversold territory, though it has not triggered a reversal signal. Divergence between price and RSI is not yet evident, suggesting the downtrend could persist into the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the final four hours of the session, with the upper band at $4,390 and the lower band near $4,070. The closing candle sits near the lower band, indicating an oversold condition within the band structure. A contraction phase is expected if price consolidates near this level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15:30–16:00 ET candle, with 91,349.86 ETH traded and a notional value of approximately $394 million. This coincided with a sharp drop of $89.61. The volume-to-price correlation is positive in the short term, with no clear divergence seen. However, the declining turnover since 16:00 ET may hint at waning bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level of the $4,073.55–$4,392.31 swing is at $4,150.85, close to where price currently resides. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the prior week’s bullish move is at $4,120, suggesting further support may come into play if the current level fails to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described leverages a confluence of bearish candlestick patterns, key Fibonacci levels, and bearish divergences in RSI and MACD to enter short positions during high-volume selloffs. Applied to today’s data, a trigger could have been generated at the long bearish engulfing pattern near $4,390, with a stop above the 15-minute high and a target at the 61.8% retracement level. The strategy appears viable in today’s context, with risk-reward asymmetry in favor of the short side.