Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) - 2025-10-04

• ETHUSDT traded in a consolidation pattern post-4580, with bearish momentum picking up below 4520.
• Volume increased as price moved lower in the last 15 minutes, suggesting bearish confirmation.
• RSI below 30 indicates oversold territory, but a bullish reversal may face resistance near 4530.
• Bollinger Bands show slight compression, suggesting potential for a breakout either side of the midline.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed after 19:30 ET, signaling a possible short-term downside.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4541.66 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a 24-hour high of $4591.59, and closed at $4511.33 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 343,438.45 ETH, with a notional turnover of $1,559,784,463.60. Price action shows a bearish consolidation trend with multiple bearish patterns emerging.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours revealed a bearish bias after a short-lived rally near $4591.59. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged after 19:30 ET, as the price closed well below the prior candle’s open. This, combined with a lower low and bearish momentum, suggests further downside pressure could follow. A notable support level appears to be forming near $4510.55, with a shallow bear trap observed between $4515–4525. Traders should watch for a potential break below $4500 to confirm the bearish bias.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover, with the price falling below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is slightly above the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. Bollinger Bands show slight contraction, indicating a possible breakout period ahead. If price continues to fall, a break of the lower band at $4490.69 could signal increased volatility and bearish continuation.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned negative and remains below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen to 28–30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a clear bullish reversal, this may not be enough to trigger a bounce. Traders should remain cautious as a break above the 40 level on RSI could signal a short-term bounce. For now, a bearish continuation appears more probable unless a large-volume buy wall forms near $4510–4515.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key bearish turning points, particularly around $4580 and $4520, indicating significant participation by bears. Notional turnover also increased during these bearish moves, confirming the bearish bias. A divergence between price and turnover was not observed, which suggests bearish continuation is likely. A bear trap near $4510.55 could see a short-term pullback if buying pressure increases.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $4591.59 to $4454.85, the 38.2% retracement level is at $4533.89, and the 61.8% level is at $4503.99. Price is currently near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible bounce or consolidation before a deeper bearish move. A break below the 61.8% level could target the next key support at $4468.12. The 50% retracement level at $4524.39 acted as resistance but failed to hold, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtest strategy, consider an approach that triggers a sell signal when the price closes below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, while RSI is below 30 and volume increases. A stop-loss can be placed above the 20-period MA or the previous swing high. This aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and the confirmation of bearish momentum seen in the recent volume and RSI. If this setup is repeated historically, it could offer a statistically meaningful edge in the current bearish environment. This system would benefit from the current price structure and could be tested over multiple cycles to refine risk and reward parameters.