Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) – 2025-09-26

• ETHUSDT opened at $4007.54 and closed at $3946.24, with a 24-hour high of $4008.38 and low of $3851.82.
• Price declined sharply mid-day, forming multiple bearish engulfing and inside bar patterns.
• Volatility spiked with a high-to-low range of $156.58, suggesting increased uncertainty in the short term.
• Turnover surged with $37395.6999 volume at 12:45 ET, indicating heightened interest in potential reversals.
• RSI dipped below 30 toward the end of the session, hinting at possible oversold conditions near current levels.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4007.54 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $3946.24 by 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $4008.38 and low of $3851.82. Total trading volume reached 37395.6999 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately $149,582,638. The pair saw a sharp sell-off from midday onward, with bearish momentum evident in multiple candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed multiple bearish signals throughout the 24-hour period. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at $4003–$3998.58 (16:00–16:15 ET), followed by a strong inside bar at $3998.58–$3966.53 (16:15–16:30 ET), both indicating exhaustion in the bullish trend. A notable bearish divergence occurred between price and RSI during the late afternoon as price continued lower while RSI flattened. Key support levels emerged at $3900–$3920 and $3875–$3890, with the latter holding during the evening session. A potential bullish reversal may form if price stabilizes near $3875.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both turned downward during the late afternoon, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA dipped below the 20-period MA, creating a death cross in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to have just crossed below the 200-period MA, indicating a shift toward a more bearish outlook if the trend continues.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for most of the 24-hour period, with a strong bearish crossover occurring around 17:00 ET. This was accompanied by a sharp drop in the histogram, signaling fading bullish momentum. The RSI dipped below 30 during the last few hours of the session, suggesting potential oversold conditions, though a reversal is likely to require strong bullish volume and price action confirmation.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate widening during the morning session before contracting slightly during the late afternoon, suggesting a period of consolidation before another bearish breakout. Price spent the final hours of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating heightened bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 37395.6999 ETH at 12:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp price rebound from $3890.69 to $3949.11. This spike in volume suggested a potential short-covering rally or a long entry at lower levels. Overall, volume remained above average throughout the day, especially during the 18:00–21:00 ET window, when bearish patterns were most pronounced. No notable divergence between volume and price was observed, with both moving in the same direction during key sell-off periods.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $4008.38 (high) to $3851.82 (low), key levels to watch include 61.8% at $3917.6 and 38.2% at $3957.8. The 61.8% level may act as a potential support, while the 38.2% level could serve as a bearish resistance if the trend continues. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement from the recent high to low would sit near $3875–$3880, aligning with the key support zone observed in the candlestick data.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy could focus on entries triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below a key moving average and a RSI below 30. For example, a long entry could be initiated near $3875–$3890 if the price stabilizes and bounces off these levels with increasing volume and a RSI rebound above 35. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3917.6, with a take-profit target set at the 38.2% level at $3957.8 or beyond. The strategy would benefit from incorporating volatility metrics like Bollinger Bands to adjust stop levels dynamically and avoid false breakouts.