Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• ETHUSDT opened at $4192.64, reached a high of $4196.37, and closed at $4002.51 after a 24-hour range from $4192.64 to $3927.45.
• Price showed a bearish reversal after a sharp drop in late-night trading, with heavy volume and a large bearish candle at 03:30 ET.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 30, while MACD turned negative, signaling potential momentum divergence and short-term exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly, and price testing the lower band multiple times.
• Total 24-hour volume hit ~539,962 ETH, and notional turnover crossed ~$2.17 billion, confirming heavy participation during the selloff.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4192.64 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4002.51 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended from a high of $4196.37 to a low of $3927.45. Total traded volume reached ~539,962 ETH, with notional turnover crossing ~$2.17 billion, reflecting heightened selling pressure in the latter half of the period.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a bearish bias, with a decisive breakdown from a key resistance level of $4166.17 after several failed attempts to retest it. A large bearish candle at 03:30 ET, closing at $4036.92, marked a potential bearish engulfing pattern. A doji formed at $4000.01 at 11:45 ET, hinting at indecision, while a long lower shadow at 07:00 ET suggested buyers attempting to defend key levels. The price then continued its descent, testing and breaking below the 38.2% Fibonacci level of $4042.64 before settling near $4002.51.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged downward, reinforcing the bearish trend. The daily chart showed the 50/100/200 EMA lines in a steeply descending order, indicating a strong bearish bias across multiple timeframes. Price remained below all key moving averages, with the 50-period MA acting as a dynamic resistance that failed to hold during the late-night sell-off.

MACD & RSI

The RSI indicator dropped below 30 in the early morning hours, signaling oversold conditions and potential short-term buying interest. The MACD histogram turned negative and continued to diverge downward, suggesting that bearish momentum remained strong despite the RSI reaching oversold territory. While the divergence between RSI and MACD may imply a potential short-term bounce, it is more likely to be a false reversal given the strong bearish structure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the early morning, indicating increased volatility. The price spent a notable portion of the session near the lower band, particularly between 04:00 ET and 09:00 ET. This suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment, with the lower band acting as a key support level that was repeatedly tested and broken. The wide bands also point to increased uncertainty and potential for a continuation or reversal, depending on the next major price move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late-night sell-off, with the largest candle (03:30 ET) recording 20,018.72 ETH traded. This volume spike coincided with a sharp price drop, reinforcing the bearish narrative. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during the breakdown of the $4166.17 level. The volume and turnover divergence observed in the early morning (04:00–06:00 ET) indicates a potential exhaustion of selling pressure, though buyers have not yet stepped in with sufficient conviction to reverse the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements were drawn from the high of $4196.37 to the low of $3927.45. Price initially tested the 38.2% level at $4042.64 and then broke below it, reaching the 61.8% level of $4004.05 during the 03:30 ET candle. The current close of $4002.51 is just below the 61.8% retracement, suggesting potential support near this level. A break below this could target the 78.6% level at $3946.00, with a possible test of the 88.6% level at $3929.55 if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical signals observed, a backtesting strategy could be designed to trade the continuation of the bearish trend using a combination of RSI, MACD, and volume confirmation. A potential approach would involve entering a short position when RSI dips below 30, MACD turns negative, and volume spikes, as seen at 03:30 ET. A stop-loss could be placed just above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4004.05, with a take-profit target at the 78.6% level. This hypothesis aligns with the observed divergence in volume and price movement during the late-night selloff and could be used to evaluate the robustness of a bearish trend-following approach on ETHUSDT.