Market Overview for Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• ETHUSDT traded in a bullish channel after breaking above $4,500, with strong volume and momentum on the 15-minute chart.
• Price touched $4,638 as a high, then pulled back toward key support at $4,570, forming a potential topping pattern.
• Volatility spiked in the early hours of 2025-09-18, with RSI reaching overbought territory and MACD showing strong bullish momentum.
• A divergence between rising price and softening volume suggests caution as the market consolidates near $4,590–$4,600.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the session, with price fluctuating near the upper band and now retracting toward the midline.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at $4,489.54 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $4,638.45, and closed the 24-hour period at $4,576.13 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 161,954.56, and notional turnover was $732.86 million over the 24-hour period. The price action reflected a strong bullish bias followed by a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong rally from $4,440 to $4,638, punctuated by multiple bullish continuation patterns. A key resistance level emerged at $4,638–$4,644, where price paused twice before retracting. A potential bearish divergence formed in the latter part of the session as price neared $4,590–$4,600, with a bearish engulfing pattern appearing on the $4,607–$4,602 candle. Notable support levels include $4,570 and $4,550, both of which held during pullbacks. A doji formed near $4,562.90, suggesting indecision ahead of a potential breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price traded well above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a strong bullish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages remain untested as of the close of this session, though the current 24-hour close is well above the 200-day MA. This suggests the asset remains in a long-term bullish trend, although a pullback to test the 50- or 100-day MA could be in play if momentum weakens.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in bullish territory throughout the session, with the histogram peaking during the sharp rally to $4,638 and subsequently shrinking during the pullback. This signals that bullish momentum is slowing, and a potential bearish crossover is likely in the near future. The RSI reached overbought levels during the rally (exceeding 70), but has since fallen back into neutral territory (~60), indicating that the market is re-equilibrating. If the RSI drops below 50, a short-term bearish phase may be confirmed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally phase, with price reaching the upper band at $4,638. As the price pulled back, it now sits near the midline, suggesting a potential continuation of the consolidation phase. A breakout above the upper band would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below the lower band could trigger a test of the key $4,550 support level. The width of the bands also suggests higher volatility, consistent with the large price swings observed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early hours of 2025-09-18, especially around the $4,560–$4,638 range, with the highest volume recorded at $4,638.45. However, as the price retraced toward $4,570, volume softened, raising the possibility of a bearish divergence. Notional turnover also spiked during the rally phase but declined during the consolidation, which is a cautionary sign for further bullish bets. The drop in volume during the retracement phase suggests that buying pressure is weakening.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels from the $4,440–$4,638 swing are at $4,573 (38.2%) and $4,548 (61.8%). The price has now retested the $4,573 level and appears to be consolidating. A breakdown below $4,548 could bring the $4,530–$4,500 area into play. The daily chart shows a broader Fibonacci structure, with the $4,500–$4,638 swing suggesting potential support at $4,500 (61.8%) and $4,440 (100%).

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action and technical indicators, a backtesting strategy could be constructed around a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts. The hypothesis would involve entering a short position when RSI forms a bearish divergence near overbought territory (above 70) and price is at or near the upper Bollinger Band. Stops could be placed just above key resistance levels, with targets aligned to Fibonacci retracements such as the 38.2% and 61.8% levels. This strategy would be tested against historical 15-minute data to validate its consistency in similar market conditions.