Market Overview for Ethereum Name Service/Tether (ENSUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• ENSUSDT dropped sharply from $20.2 to $10.02, triggering massive sell pressure before a consolidation to ~$15.75.
• Volume surged to 400,514.11 at $15.59, signaling a possible short-term bottoming process.
• RSI hit oversold levels, suggesting potential bounce, but MACD remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply during the selloff, indicating high volatility.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest key support at ~15.30 and resistance at ~16.19 based on the recent swing.

Ethereum Name Service/Tether (ENSUSDT) opened at $20.02 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, surged to $24.30, then plummeted to a low of $1.75, and closed at $15.79 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 1,586,191.57, while turnover amounted to $26,804,564.47. The pair experienced high volatility, a sharp bearish breakdown, and a partial rebound.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period was dominated by a bearish breakdown, with a long lower shadow and wide-range bear candles, particularly between 21:30 ET and 23:00 ET. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at $20.20–$19.25, followed by a large bearish candle at $19.65–$10.02, signaling strong distribution and fear in the market. A potential bullish reversal pattern emerged near $15.55–$15.65, where volume increased and price rebounded. Key support levels appear at $15.30 (61.8% Fibonacci of the $1.75–$20.02 swing), and resistance at $16.19 (38.2% Fibonacci of the $15.59–$15.79 rebound).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages crossed to the downside, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA at around $15.65 is now providing support. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is likely above the current price, suggesting the pair is in a short-to-medium-term bear trend. The 200-period MA is far above the recent lows, indicating the selloff is significant and may take time to re-engage with the long-term trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained bearish throughout the 24-hour period, with the histogram showing strong negative divergence during the selloff. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 20 for several hours, particularly from 23:30 ET to 02:00 ET, indicating a potential bounce. However, the RSI failed to form a bullish divergence, which suggests the oversold condition may not lead to a strong reversal. The combination of bearish momentum and oversold RSI suggests traders may see a rebound, but bearish pressure could reassert itself if the move fails to break $16.19.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected the heightened volatility, with the price breaking below the lower band multiple times during the selloff. The bands widened significantly between 21:30 ET and 00:15 ET, indicating a potential turning point. After consolidation, the price has returned to the mid-band at around $15.65–$15.75, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers. A break above the upper band could signal a shift in momentum, while a retest of the lower band would reaffirm bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, with the most significant spike occurring at 21:45 ET with a volume of 291,474.07, followed by a large candle at 22:00 ET (123,757.08). The high volume during the selloff confirmed bearish sentiment. However, volume dropped off during the rebound, indicating weaker buying conviction. Notional turnover spiked during the selloff, reaching $3.3M at 21:30 ET. The divergence between the selloff's high volume and the rebound's lower volume suggests a potential false recovery, and traders should watch for confirmation of a sustainable bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major $1.75–$20.02 swing, the 61.8% level at $15.30 appears to act as strong support. The recent rebound from $15.55 to $15.79 aligns with the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels, suggesting that traders are testing this range for potential buying opportunities. On the 15-minute chart, the $15.79–$15.59 move has a 61.8% retracement at $15.67, which could serve as a near-term support level. A break of $15.30 could trigger further downside action.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a mean-reversion approach during sharp volatility spikes. Traders could initiate long positions when the price closes above the 20-period MA and RSI exits oversold territory below 20, while short positions are triggered when the price closes below the 20-period MA and RSI exceeds overbought levels above 80. Stops are placed at the recent swing high or low, and targets are set at the next Fibonacci level. The recent action supports this hypothesis, as the price tested key support and showed signs of stabilization, but the lack of bullish confirmation remains a risk. This strategy would require a high-volatility environment, which appears to be in place.