Market Overview: Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN)

• Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) traded in a volatile range, swinging between 75,607 MXN and 78,450 MXN during the 24-hour window.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 78,450 MXN, followed by a retracement to 75,607 MXN, suggesting possible short-term exhaustion.
• Volume remained muted for most of the session but spiked at key reversal zones, confirming pattern validity.
• The RSI hovered near neutral territory, with no clear overbought or oversold signals, while MACD showed mixed momentum.
• Price is currently consolidating near a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 24-hour range, hinting at a potential near-term pivot.

Price and Volume Summary

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 76,907 MXN on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 75,944 MXN on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 78,450 MXN and a low of 75,607 MXN over the past 24 hours. Total traded volume was 7.17 ETH, with a notional turnover of 549,575 MXN.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours exhibited a bearish engulfing pattern at 78,450 MXN, where a large candle opened at 77,431 MXN and closed at 78,411 MXN before retracing to 75,607 MXN. This pattern was followed by a bullish reversal near 75,607 MXN. A key support zone appears near the 76,000 MXN level, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 78,450 MXN to 75,607 MXN swing currently overlapping this area. A potential test of this level may signal the next directional shift.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average is currently below the 50-period line, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term. The 50-period line is still in a downtrend, indicating that ETHMXN is in a consolidative phase. Volatility appears to have expanded following the bearish engulfing pattern, with price staying near the lower half of the Bollinger Bands for much of the session. This suggests that ETHMXN may be in a period of increased risk of a breakout or breakdown.

Momentum and Sentiment

Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the mid-40s, showing no signs of overbought or oversold conditions, but a slight bearish divergence was noted as price declined while RSI remained relatively flat. The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. However, a flattening of the MACD histogram in the last 6 hours may indicate a potential pause in the downward momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the appearance of a bearish engulfing pattern at 78,450 MXN, a short entry signal would have been generated. For the backtest, the strategy would require clarification on the exit rule. If we assume a close on the first bullish confirmation (e.g., a bullish engulfing or a strong reversal candle), the exit point would be near 76,112 MXN. Alternatively, a fixed stop-loss or take-profit level could be applied. A time-based exit, such as closing the position after a set number of candlesticks, could also be a viable approach. The performance of the strategy will depend on the accuracy of pattern recognition and the timing of exit signals.