Market Overview: Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN)

• Price fell from a high of 73,318 MXN to close at 70,193 MXN, a drop of nearly 4.3%.
• A large bearish candle on 23:45 ET signaled a sharp reversal from 73,091 to 71,873 MXN.
• Volatility spiked midday before settling into a quiet, bearish consolidation phase.
• Momentum indicators suggest exhaustion in the downside, but support near 70,000 MXN is untested.
• Volume picked up during the key sell-off but remains low during the final 6 hours.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 73,000 MXN on 12:00 ET-1 and hit a high of 73,836 MXN, before closing at 70,193 MXN by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-30. Total traded volume was 8.088 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 568,944 MXN.

The 24-hour chart showed a sharp, bearish move from a high of 73,836 MXN to a low of 70,915 MXN. The most dramatic shift occurred during the 23:45 ET candle, where ETHMXN dropped from 73,091 MXN to 71,873 MXN in 15 minutes, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. This was followed by a slower descent into the 70,000 MXN psychological level, where the price found temporary respite. Several doji and spinning top patterns emerged in the late hours, indicating fading momentum and possible indecision in the market. Key support levels appear to form near 70,000 MXN and 69,000 MXN, while resistance is visible around 72,500 MXN and 73,000 MXN.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart saw the 20-period line fall below the 50-period line, reinforcing the bearish bias. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is positioned well above the 200-period MA, suggesting a broader bearish trend. The MACD crossed into negative territory, with a bearish divergence forming between the histogram and price. RSI dropped below 30 near the end of the session, suggesting oversold conditions, though this may not be strong enough to trigger a reversal. Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction before a sharp expansion during the 23:45 ET sell-off, indicating a spike in volatility. The price closed near the lower band, reflecting continued bearish pressure.

Volume spiked during the 18:45 ET candle, with 0.4838 ETH traded, and again during the 23:45 ET session, where a 0.973 ETH volume accompanied the sharp price decline. However, volume subsided afterward, suggesting a lack of follow-through. Notional turnover was highest during the 23:45–00:00 ET timeframe, aligning with the major price drop. The divergence between strong volume during the sell-off and muted volume during the subsequent decline suggests a possible exhaustion of short-term bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy hinges on identifying bearish engulfing patterns, particularly during periods of high volume and sharp price declines, to trigger short positions held for three days. Given the volatility and bearish momentum observed in the 15-minute and daily charts, ETHMXN presents a suitable candidate for this type of analysis. However, due to the complexity of the crypto FX pair and the potential mismatch in the data source, it is essential to confirm whether the ticker “ETHMXN” is correctly mapped in the data vendor’s system. If not, an alternative like “ETHM.O” may need to be used. Additionally, the backtest can be run using either daily close prices or the 15-minute OHLC data, depending on the desired frequency of signals. Once confirmed, a full backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-30 can be generated to evaluate the strategy’s performance.

Looking ahead, ETHMXN faces immediate support near 70,000 MXN, where a bounce or breakdown could shape near-term sentiment. A close above 72,500 MXN would signal a potential reversal, while a break below 69,000 MXN could accelerate the bearish trend. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated and momentum indicators suggest further consolidation is likely.