Market Overview for Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN)

• ETHMXN traded in a narrow range during the overnight hours before breaking higher at 22:00 ET on a sharp volume spike.
• Price pulled back into consolidation but held above the 82,725 MXN psychological level during the final hours.
• Turnover remained subdued until the 15-minute candle at 14:15 ET, followed by a sharp 15-minute selloff to 82,488 MXN.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions in the early hours, followed by bearish divergence.
• Volatility was muted for most of the 24-hour period, with the exception of a 2.8% intrabar range at 14:15 ET.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 82,257 MXN on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 85,000 MXN, and closed at 82,725 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total volume was 1.7791 ETH, with notional turnover of 146,891,530 MXN.

Structure & Formations

ETHMXN formed a narrow range during the early hours, with price consolidating between 82,257 and 83,813 MXN. A bullish breakout above 83,548 MXN at 22:00 ET was followed by a sharp correction to 82,488 MXN at 15:15 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 03:30 ET, confirming the pullback. A long lower shadow appeared at 14:15 ET, signaling rejection of lower levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed at 83,053 MXN, indicating a potential short-term shift in momentum. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA above the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a stronger bias to the upside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed bearish divergence after the 22:00 ET breakout, with the line falling below zero ahead of the 14:15 ET selloff. The RSI reached overbought levels in the early hours but dropped into oversold territory after the selloff, indicating potential exhaustion of both buyers and sellers.

Bollinger Bands

ETHMXN spent much of the day trading near the lower Bollinger Band, with a volatility contraction observed between 16:00 ET and 22:00 ET. A sharp break above the upper band at 22:00 ET was followed by a retrace into the middle band at the 15:15 ET low.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred at 22:00 ET, coinciding with a breakout above 83,548 MXN. A second notable increase in volume occurred at 14:15 ET, supporting the selloff to 82,488 MXN. Notional turnover remained largely flat until the 22:00 ET and 14:15 ET candles. No clear divergence was observed between price and volume during the period.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels on the 15-minute swing included 83,053 MXN (38.2%), 82,797 MXN (50%), and 82,541 MXN (61.8%). Price found temporary support at 82,725 MXN, suggesting a potential floor for short-term buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy using a breakout and reentry approach could target entries at 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels following sharp volume moves. Stop-loss placements could be positioned just below the 0.618 level or at the most recent swing low. The 14:15 ET selloff to 82,488 MXN may offer a favorable risk-reward setup for short-term traders, particularly if the 82,725 MXN level holds. The next 24 hours may see a retest of this level, with the 83,000 MXN area offering resistance for a potential countertrend trade.