Market Overview for Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN)

• ETHMXN opened at 81,526 MXN, reached a high of 84,000 MXN, and closed at 82,669 MXN.
• A sharp rally between 23:15–03:15 ET lifted price by ~4.5%, followed by consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the rally but remained subdued in the final 6 hours.
• RSI approached overbought territory briefly but failed to confirm a breakout.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the upswing and have since tightened, signaling potential consolidation.

The Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) pair opened on 2025-10-02 at 81,526 MXN and traded to a high of 84,000 MXN before settling at 82,669 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1.798 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 148,491 MXN. Price action showed a sharp 4.5% rally from ~81,526 to 84,000 MXN in the early hours of ET, with subsequent consolidation and a modest pullback.

Key support levels emerged around 82,669 MXN and 82,257 MXN, both of which acted as short-term floors. Resistance levels were noted at 83,053 MXN and 83,698 MXN, with the latter failing to hold during a late sell-off. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 16:00–16:15 ET, followed by a bearish continuation from 19:45–20:00 ET. A doji formed around 22:30–23:00 ET, hinting at indecision before a decisive break higher. These patterns suggest mixed sentiment with potential for further range-bound trading.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early rally, with price touching the upper band before retracting to within the band. This suggests increased volatility but also a potential for continued consolidation. The RSI approached overbought levels (~72) around 03:15 ET but failed to break above 75, hinting at a lack of follow-through in the bullish move. MACD showed a positive crossover with a growing histogram during the rally, but both the line and histogram flattened out in the final 6 hours, indicating waning momentum.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 81,526–84,000 MXN swing showed key levels at 83,262 MXN (38.2%) and 82,763 MXN (61.8%). Price has been consolidating near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a possible short-term pivot point. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 20-period MA during the rally, confirming short-term bullish momentum. However, the 20-period MA has since crossed back below the 50-period MA, potentially signaling a bearish reversal in the near term.

The Backtest Hypothesis considers a short-term breakout strategy based on the observed 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern followed by a retest of the breakout level. The strategy would involve entering long at the close of the engulfing candle, with a stop-loss placed below the engulfing candle’s low and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A trailing stop could be applied once price clears the 61.8% level. This hypothesis aligns with the current price dynamics, where a breakout attempt is likely to be met with initial resistance at 83,053 MXN and a potential pivot at 82,763 MXN. If the RSI fails to confirm a sustained breakout, the strategy could be modified to include a short bias on a rejection of key resistance.