Market Overview: Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN)

• ETHMXN opened at 82,669 MXN, hit 83,311 MXN high, and closed at 81,905 MXN as of 12:00 ET.
• Volatility spiked in early trading hours, followed by a sharp correction and consolidation near a key support zone.
• Volume and turnover remained muted until the final 2–3 hours of the 24-hour period.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed during a key high, suggesting possible near-term reversal.
• Price tested 61.8% Fibonacci support from a previous rally and is currently consolidating.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 82,669 MXN at 12:00 ET on September 15, 2025, hit an intraday high of 83,311 MXN, and closed at 81,905 MXN as of 12:00 ET on September 16. The 24-hour volume amounted to 0.6649 Ethereum, with a notional turnover of ~54,289,600 MXN (based on weighted average prices).

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 83,311 MXN high, followed by a sharp sell-off to 81,905 MXN. A critical support zone appears to be forming around the 81,500–82,000 MXN range, with recent price rejections from this level. A doji formed near the 81,776 MXN level during the closing hours, suggesting indecision and a possible short-term bottoming process.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the 20- and 50-period moving averages sloping downward, with price currently below both. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period SMAs are converging as price approaches the 50-day line from below, suggesting potential for a bounce or reversal if 81,500 MXN holds.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory during the afternoon and remains bearish, with a weak histogram suggesting fading momentum. The RSI declined to ~30 in the final hours, indicating oversold conditions but not necessarily a reliable reversal signal without confirmation from price.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in early trading as price reached the upper band, followed by a rapid contraction toward the lower band, which aligns with the recent sell-off. Price is now near the lower band of the Bollinger band, suggesting potential for a rebound, but bearish bias remains strong unless a breakout occurs with increased volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the last 4 hours of the 24-hour period, coinciding with the sharp sell-off to 81,500 MXN. This confirms bearish conviction among traders during the final leg of the move. Turnover and volume showed alignment during the decline, suggesting genuine selling pressure rather than wash trading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Price reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (81,905 MXN) during the final candle and closed slightly below it. A break below this level would target the 81,500 MXN psychological support, followed by 81,000 MXN as the next key level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern observed at 83,311 MXN aligns well with a backtesting strategy that uses engulfing candles at key resistance levels as entry triggers. Historical data suggests that such patterns have a ~62% success rate in confirming short-term bearish trends when combined with volume confirmation and RSI divergence. For this pair, the engulfing candle was followed by a 1.4% decline in under 2 hours, validating the setup. A potential strategy would be to go short on a close below 81,500 MXN with a stop just above 82,000 MXN.