Market Overview: Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) 24-Hour Technical Summary

• ETHMXN opened at 73,787 MXN, surged to 73,996 MXN, and closed at 72,829 MXN amid volatile 24-hour price swings.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 17:00 ET, followed by a sharp 1.5% decline in the following 15-minute candle.
• Low volume and turnover throughout the day suggest a lack of conviction in price direction.
• ETHMXN tested and bounced off Fibonacci support at 71,881 MXN, but failed to break higher resistance at 73,116 MXN.
• MACD showed bearish divergence as price hit 71,887 MXN, while RSI remained neutral, avoiding overbought or oversold extremes.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 73,787 MXN on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 72,829 MXN on 2025-09-26 at the same time. The 24-hour high reached 73,996 MXN, while the low dropped to 71,441 MXN. Total trading volume was 3.1966 ETH, with a turnover of 233,013 MXN.

The price action showed significant bearish momentum after a brief consolidation phase, especially during the 17:00–18:30 ET window, when a sharp decline occurred. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:00 ET, and the price closed below key support at 72,418 MXN. This signaled potential bearish continuation, especially as volume spiked during the move to 71,887 MXN. The session ended with ETHMXN hovering near 72,829 MXN, suggesting buyers have yet to reassert control.

Structure and candlestick formations indicate key resistance at 73,966 MXN and 73,116 MXN, both of which were rejected during the session. On the support side, 71,881 MXN and 71,441 MXN were critical levels that held multiple times. A doji formed at 18:15 ET at 71,441 MXN, hinting at indecision, while the 15:30 ET candle showed a bullish engulfing pattern as the price broke out from the lower range, closing at 73,107 MXN—though this was quickly reversed.

Moving averages for the 15-minute chart show the price trading below the 20-period and 50-period lines, indicating a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day MA lines are not provided but historically would provide longer-term context. MACD lines turned negative late in the session, while the histogram showed bearish divergence as price hit 71,887 MXN. RSI remained within neutral territory, avoiding overbought or oversold extremes, suggesting that the move downward was not yet exhausted.

Bollinger Bands reflected increased volatility during the 17:00–18:45 ET period, with the price breaking below the lower band at 71,441 MXN. This suggests a high-volatility expansion phase and could indicate a continuation lower, depending on volume follow-through. The bands are expected to contract again during consolidation phases, particularly after the 02:45–04:30 ET rebound to 73,791 MXN.

Total notional turnover was 233,013 MXN, while volume was only 3.1966 ETH, indicating low conviction in price direction. The lack of significant turnover despite sharp price moves suggests either a thin order book or limited liquidity in the ETH/MXN pair. This may increase volatility and reduce the predictability of price action in the near term. No clear divergence between price and turnover was observed, as both moved in tandem during the most active periods.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 71,441–73,996 MXN swing show key support at 71,881 MXN (38.2%) and 72,418 MXN (50%). The price held both levels multiple times, suggesting they may remain relevant. The 61.8% retracement at 72,957 MXN is a potential resistance on the way up and a possible support on the way down. On a larger daily time frame, the 38.2% retracement at 72,701 MXN was briefly tested but failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves a combination of candlestick patterns and Fibonacci retracements to identify high-probability entries. A long position is triggered upon a bullish engulfing pattern forming at key Fibonacci support levels, with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low. A short position is initiated on a bearish engulfing pattern at key resistance levels, with a stop-loss above the previous swing high. The strategy uses a 15-minute chart for entry and a daily chart for context, with exit signals based on either hitting the take-profit target or breaking the initial entry level. This approach could be effective in the ETHMXN pair given the recent volatility and pattern formation, though it would require careful risk management and confirmation of liquidity to avoid slippage.