Market Overview for Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) – 24-Hour Summary

• ETHMXN traded in a tight range with a bearish bias, closing near its daily low after a sharp selloff.
• Momentum weakened sharply in the second half, with RSI approaching oversold levels.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff, but volume failed to confirm the move, hinting at potential indecision.
• Key support tested below 71,000 MXN; a breakdown could trigger Fibonacci levels as low as 69,800 MXN.
• A bullish reversal is possible if price retests 71,200–71,400 MXN with confirmation volume and a rejection.

The Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) pair opened at 75,031 MXN on October 21, 2025, reached a high of 75,615 MXN, then declined sharply to a 24-hour low of 69,818 MXN before closing at 69,818 MXN on October 22. The total 24-hour volume amounted to 216.8335 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 16.33 million MXN, reflecting heightened volatility but uneven participation.

From a structural standpoint, ETHMXN exhibited a bearish bias, with price consolidating below key resistance at 74,000–75,000 MXN and testing support at 71,000 MXN. A sharp downward move below 70,000 MXN triggered a low-volume rebound, forming a potential bearish engulfing pattern during the early hours of October 22. While Fibonacci retracement levels indicated a 38.2% retest at 73,200 MXN and a critical 61.8% level at 69,800 MXN, price failed to stabilize above these key areas, hinting at unresolved bearish sentiment.

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Moving average analysis on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period lines during the selloff, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, ETHMXN remained below its 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages, signaling a continuation of a longer-term downtrend. MACD lines diverged from price, with a bearish crossover suggesting further momentum to the downside could follow, although RSI approached oversold territory (below 30), indicating the potential for a near-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands showed an expansion during the selloff, reflecting rising volatility, with price dropping below the lower band at one point. This expansion could suggest a period of heightened uncertainty in the market, especially as the 20-period standard deviation widened. The recent consolidation near the lower band may provide a setup for a potential rebound, though volume failed to confirm the strength of the bounce, signaling caution.

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Volume and turnover activity were unevenly distributed throughout the 24-hour period. The selloff between 19:00 and 22:00 ET saw a surge in volume (over 40 ETH) with a large price drop, but subsequent buying attempts were met with minimal volume, suggesting weak conviction. A divergence between price and volume became apparent after 04:00 ET, as price rebounded while volume diminished, which could indicate exhaustion in the short-term bearish move and the potential for a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the bearish engulfing pattern observed on October 22, assuming a short position is entered at the next day's open with a stop-loss placed above the high of the engulfing pattern. The exit would be triggered on the first close below the low of the pattern. While this pattern typically indicates bearish momentum, the weak volume and divergence in RSI suggest caution in relying solely on the pattern without additional confirmation. Further refinement could incorporate Bollinger Band levels or Fibonacci retracement levels for more precise entry and exit points.

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