Market Overview: Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) — 24-Hour Action and Technical Implications

• ETHMXN opened at 81910, reached a high of 83326, and closed near 80051 after a sharp intraday decline.
• Price declined in two major selloffs, forming bearish engulfing patterns and confirming oversold RSI levels.
• Volatility spiked during the 19:00–22:00 ET window, with over 90% of the total volume concentrated in this period.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion and contraction cycles, indicating periods of consolidation and breakout.
• Fibonacci retracements aligned with key lows, suggesting potential support at 79105 and 76954.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 81910 at 12:00 ET - 1, hit an intraday high of 83326, then declined to a low of 79105, closing at 80051 at 12:00 ET. The total traded volume was 1.5849, with a notional turnover of 133.15 million MXN over the 24-hour window.

The price action displayed two major bearish impulses: a sharp sell-off from 83326 to 82944, and a second, more sustained drop from 82944 to 79608. These declines were supported by bearish engulfing patterns and a breakdown below critical support levels at 82667 and 81251. Key support levels now sit at 79608 and 79105, with the latter acting as a potential psychological floor. The 76954 level, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the intraday high to the final low, is also in focus.

Price closed just above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, suggesting potential short-term stabilization. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average is likely above current levels, indicating a bearish bias. The RSI reached oversold territory near the session's close, which may hint at a short-term bounce. However, the MACD showed bearish divergence, with the line below the signal line and both in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands reflected an expansion during the selloff, with price nearing the lower band, which is a typical setup for a mean reversion trade if a bounce occurs.

Volume was heavily concentrated in the first four hours of the selloff (19:00–22:00 ET), accounting for the bulk of the session's turnover. Turnover spiked alongside the sharp declines, confirming the bearish sentiment. However, in the final hours of the session, volume decreased despite continued price movement, hinting at waning conviction in the bearish thesis and a possible pause in selling pressure.

The Fibonacci retracement from the 83326 high to the 79105 low shows the 79608 level as a 38.2% retracement, acting as a potential short-term support. The 76954 level at 61.8% is a more critical psychological level and likely a strong zone to watch if the bearish trend continues.

A short-term bounce could occur with RSI in oversold territory, but bearish momentum remains strong through the MACD and volume profile. Traders may look to key support levels at 79608 and 79105 for entry or stop-loss decisions. If price breaks below 79105 without a recovery, the next key level at 76954 becomes relevant.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying bearish engulfing patterns at key resistance levels, followed by a short entry after a confirmed break below the pattern’s low. Stops could be placed above the pattern high, with targets aligned to the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This approach could be tested using a moving average crossover (20/50) to filter market direction and RSI to confirm oversold conditions before entering trades. Volume spikes could act as confirmation signals for the validity of the pattern and the strength of the short move.