Market Overview for Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) on 2025-11-14

• Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) declines to 58,692 MXN, down 4.2% in 24 hours.
• A bearish reversal pattern forms after a sharp intraday selloff.
• Volume drops in late trading despite price consolidation.
• RSI shows oversold conditions, suggesting limited near-term downside.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with price near the lower Bollinger Band.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 61,446 MXN on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 61,635 MXN and as low as 57,276 MXN, closing at 58,692 MXN at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The pair recorded a total volume of 23.2772 ETH and a turnover of 1,376,990 MXN during the 24-hour period. A bearish trend unfolded amid a sharp mid-day selloff, with price finding support near 58,275 MXN before a late consolidation.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are in a bearish alignment, with the short-term MA dipping below the longer-term line, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 200-period MAs are converging, indicating a potential retesting of key support levels.

Momentum indicators suggest mixed signals. The RSI is approaching oversold territory at 29, hinting at a potential short-term rebound or consolidation. Meanwhile, the MACD is in negative territory with a narrowing histogram, signaling a weakening of the downtrend. Price remains near the lower Bollinger Band, with volatility expanding during the sharp move down from 60,000 MXN to 57,718 MXN.

Volume was concentrated during the selloff between 19:00 and 04:45 ET, with a total of 5.5589 ETH traded in the 04:45 candle. However, volume dried up in the final 3.5 hours, as price found a floor near 58,692 MXN. Notional turnover spiked during the same period, indicating strong conviction in the selloff. Divergence between price and volume in the latter half of the 24-hour window suggests a possible pause in bearish momentum.

The Fibonacci retracement levels for the key 60,000–57,718 swing show the 38.2% level at 59,113 MXN and the 61.8% level at 58,355 MXN. Price briefly tested the 61.8% level before rebounding, suggesting this area could serve as support in the near term. On the daily chart, the 0.382 retracement level lies near 60,000 MXN, a level that has previously acted as a pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the emergence of a potential bearish reversal pattern and the convergence of multiple technical indicators, a backtesting strategy could be designed to evaluate the performance of a short trade initiated at the close of the 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern. This would be executed under the assumption that the pattern signals a short-term reversal in the downtrend, and that a 1-day short position is closed after 24 hours. The strategy would aim to capture any bearish follow-through while managing risk through a tight stop-loss near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 58,355 MXN. Performance could be evaluated using a fixed-risk approach, measuring both reward-to-risk ratios and overall win rate.