Market Overview: Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) on 2025-10-03

• ETHMXN rose from 81,526 MXN to 83,698 MXN, reaching a 24-hour high before consolidating near 82,669 MXN.
• Momentum surged into the late evening, followed by a pullback and consolidation into the early morning.
• Volatility increased with a 2.7% range, but volume remained muted (0.352 ETH) with weak confirmation of price strength.
• RSI overbought conditions emerged temporarily, but no strong divergence or exhaustion signals were observed.
• ETHMXN formed bullish engulfing and bearish reversal patterns on key swing points, suggesting potential trend fatigue.

Ethereum/Mexican Peso (ETHMXN) opened at 81,526 MXN on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, rose to a 24-hour high of 83,698 MXN, and closed at 82,669 MXN by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The pair traded between 81,526 MXN and 83,698 MXN over the period, with a total traded volume of 1.908 ETH and a notional turnover of approximately 158,586 MXN.

Structure & Formations

The ETHMXN chart displayed a bullish breakout during the evening hours, forming a strong engulfing candle from 83,053 MXN to 84,000 MXN. This was followed by a bearish reversal pattern as the price fell back toward 83,181 MXN and consolidated. Key support levels emerged around 82,669 MXN and 82,425 MXN, with resistance at 82,700 MXN and 83,053 MXN. A doji formed near 82,700 MXN in the early morning, suggesting indecision and potential trend reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ETHMXN closed above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which were aligned around 82,400–82,500 MXN. This indicates short-term bullish momentum, although the closing price failed to maintain above the 50-period line in the last few hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are expected to align closer to the 82,000 MXN level, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive during the bullish breakout and showed a healthy histogram expansion. However, the momentum waned in the early morning, with the MACD line crossing back below the signal line, hinting at potential bearish reversal. The RSI reached overbought territory above 70 during the breakout but has since retraced to more neutral levels, indicating the market may still have room to consolidate before a directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy that buys on the confirmation of bullish engulfing patterns followed by a short-term sell at key Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8% at 82,669 MXN) could yield positive results, especially if supported by volume confirmation. The strategy could be optimized with tight stop-loss levels placed below the doji near 82,700 MXN and take-profit targets aligned with prior resistance levels.

Bollinger Bands

ETHMXN traded within a moderate volatility range, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands expanding during the breakout. The price touched the upper band during the evening high and pulled back toward the midline by the morning. The narrowing of the bands in the early morning suggests a potential for a breakout or breakdown, depending on whether volume picks up with a clear direction.

Volume & Turnover

The 24-hour trading volume was relatively low at 1.908 ETH, with the majority of activity concentrated in the evening breakout and early morning consolidation. Notional turnover reached its peak during the 15-minute period that closed at 83,698 MXN. However, volume failed to confirm the strength of the price move, suggesting potential for a consolidation phase or a reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 81,526 MXN to 83,698 MXN, key levels of interest include 82,878 MXN (38.2%) and 82,669 MXN (61.8%). ETHMXN has found support near the 61.8% level and could test the 38.2% retracement on a rebound. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels align with the broader trend, reinforcing the potential for a consolidation phase.

The next 24 hours may bring renewed volatility if ETHMXN tests the 82,669 MXN support level with increased volume. While a breakout above 83,053 MXN could reinvigorate bullish momentum, investors should remain cautious of divergence in volume and RSI levels that may signal exhaustion. A pullback below 82,425 MXN would suggest a deeper correction is likely.