Market Overview: Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) – 24-Hour Analysis

• ETHDAI opened at 3830.84, surged to a high of 4064.41, then retraced to close at 4001.30.
• A sharp 24-hour move of +4.96% was driven by a large-volume 15-minute candle at 15:30 ET.
• RSI reached 73 during the peak rally, suggesting overbought conditions at the top of the move.
• Bollinger Bands showed a modest expansion during the rally phase, indicating rising volatility.
• Volume spiked during key retracements, suggesting liquidity shifts and potential market structure changes.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 3830.84 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4001.30 the following day. The pair surged to a high of 4064.41 and fell to a low of 3689.01, producing a significant 24-hour swing of +4.96%. Total volume was 64.56 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately 259,804 DAI.

The price action displayed a strong bullish impulse during the evening and early morning hours, followed by a consolidation and partial retracement during the day. A key 15-minute candle at 15:30 ET (4044.65 open to 4001.30 close) accounted for over 4.5% of the total volume, suggesting strong institutional or algorithmic participation. This candle marked a turning point in the 24-hour price cycle.

Structure and formations revealed a descending triangle near the 3750–3830 range in the early part of the session, followed by a bullish breakout. During the consolidation phase, multiple reversal patterns emerged, including a bearish engulfing candle at 19:15 ET and a doji at 22:30 ET. A critical support level emerged at 3760–3770, which held during a sharp dip. Resistance levels were identified at 3830–3840 and 3900–3920, where price paused during retests.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart acted as dynamic support during the retracements, with the 50-period MA holding strong at 3790–3810. The daily 50/100/200 MA stack was bullish during the rally but showed signs of flattening as the price neared overbought RSI territory. The MACD crossed above the zero line during the rally, confirming bullish momentum, but a bearish crossover later signaled the start of the correction. RSI reached 73 mid-session, indicating overbought conditions, while it dropped to 35 during the retracement phase, suggesting oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally phase, indicating rising volatility and institutional involvement. Price spent most of the session inside the upper band before a sharp retrace pushed it into the lower band. This suggests a temporary overextension and a correction back toward the mean. A narrowing of the bands occurred during the consolidation phase, signaling a potential pause in volatility and possibly a buildup for a new move.

Notional turnover and volume diverged slightly during the retracement phase—while price dropped, volume remained elevated, suggesting that selling pressure was absorbed by buyers. This is a key sign of a potential support hold and possible continuation of the bullish trend if the price retests the 4000–4010 level.

Fibonacci retracement levels provided clear points of interest during the 24-hour swing. The 38.2% retracement (3876.57) held during the initial pullback, while the 61.8% level (3918.66) acted as a key resistance. A test of the 38.2% retracement (3964.34) in the 15-minute chart marked a pivotal moment in the session, with buyers stepping in to push the price higher again.

Looking ahead, ETHDAI is likely to test key support at 3950–3960 if the 4000–4010 zone fails. A break below 3900 would signal a potential retest of the 3850–3860 level. However, the overall bias remains bullish if the 3830–3840 zone holds. Investors should remain cautious of a possible overbought retracement or a shift in market sentiment as the broader crypto market remains in a consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis: The proposed strategy involves a long-biased entry on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close above the 50-period MA, with a stop below the recent swing low and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Given the recent price action and the confirmed support at 3760–3770, this strategy would have captured the 3900–4000 rally with limited risk. A similar setup during the 15:30–16:00 ET period would have provided a high-probability entry. However, the 20-period MA may not provide sufficient confirmation during sharp retracements, making it important to use the 50-period MA and RSI as a secondary filter.