Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) - 2025-10-31

• Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 3767.04 and closed at 3809.78, with a 24-hour high of 3869.59 and low of 3681.26.
• The 24-hour volume was 52.62 (ETH) with a total turnover of 196,468.23 DAI.
• A bearish breakdown followed by a bullish rebound highlighted key volatility and momentum shifts.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions at 70+ during the late-night rally, suggesting potential pullback risks.
• Key support levels were tested and rejected multiple times, suggesting strong short-term bearish pressure.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened the 24-hour period at 3767.04 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 3809.78 at 12:00 ET on October 31, 2025. The pair reached a high of 3869.59 and a low of 3681.26, with a total traded volume of 52.62 ETH and a notional turnover of 196,468.23 DAI. This data highlights a volatile 24-hour session marked by distinct short-term swings and clear signs of shifting momentum.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed multiple key turning points, including a strong bearish breakdown from 3792.91 to 3722.06, followed by a bullish rebound that pushed the price back above 3800. The formation of a bullish engulfing pattern at 3803.22–3809.78 at the start of the session signaled a reversal, while a doji at 3832.1 indicated indecision among buyers and sellers. Resistance levels at 3850 and 3870 appear significant, with the price briefly testing the former before pulling back. A major support level at 3687.55 held firm, limiting further downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a convergence in the latter part of the session, suggesting potential consolidation. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the rebound from 3722.06 to 3809.78, forming a golden cross that may have signaled a short-term bullish reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is still above the 200-period MA, but the 100-period MA appears to be catching up, indicating a potential shift in trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a divergence during the late-night rally, with the histogram expanding as the price surged toward 3869.59. This suggests strong momentum but also hints at overbought conditions. The RSI reached levels above 70 during the same period, confirming overbought territory and increasing the likelihood of a near-term pullback. On the other hand, during the bearish breakdown, RSI dropped below 30 multiple times, indicating oversold conditions that failed to trigger a strong rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late-night rally, indicating a period of heightened volatility. The price closed near the upper band at 3869.59, which could act as a temporary ceiling. Earlier in the session, the price remained within a tighter band range, with a few candles touching the lower band before bouncing back up. This behavior suggests that volatility was increasing as the session progressed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the critical turning points in the session, particularly during the bearish breakdown and the subsequent bullish rebound. The largest single-candle volume spike occurred at 22:15 ET, where 6.3901 ETH was traded, coinciding with a move from 3771.15 to 3773.86. Notional turnover also saw a sharp increase during this period, reinforcing the strength of the price action. However, divergence was observed during the late-night rally—volume did not increase proportionally with the price move, which could indicate a weakening trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 3681.26 to 3869.59, the 61.8% retracement level came in at approximately 3790.45. The price bounced off this level twice during the session, indicating it as a critical support/resistance threshold. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the broader move from the 2025 high to the recent low aligns with the current price range, suggesting that ETHDAI is consolidating at a key Fibonacci level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of bullish engulfing patterns during the early part of the session and the subsequent overbought RSI levels, a potential backtest hypothesis could focus on identifying similar setups in the ETHDAI pair using 15-minute candlestick patterns. A strategy could be constructed to enter long positions on confirmed bullish engulfing patterns and hold for 3 days. This would allow for both the capture of short-term momentum and the assessment of whether overbought conditions lead to pullbacks or trend continuation. Comparing this strategy’s performance to a benchmark such as a stablecoin peg or a broader Ethereum-based asset would provide a clearer picture of its effectiveness in both trending and ranging conditions.