Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) on 2025-10-11

• ETHDAI traded in a tight range for most of the 24 hours, with a late-night drop dragging the pair down from 4,155.75 to as low as 3,651.64.
• The price closed near the lower end of the range at 3,829.24, reflecting bearish momentum with RSI hovering below 30 in the latter half of the session.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the downward leg, indicating heightened volatility, while volume remained elevated in the 19:30–21:00 ET window.
• A key support level at 3,818–3,820 held through the last hour, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is currently at 3,806.83.
• Divergence between price and turnover was observed in the last 3 hours, suggesting potential indecision among traders.

The Ethereum/Dai pair opened at 4,112.97 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4,155.75 and a low of 3,651.64 before closing at 3,829.24 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 252.646 ETH, with a notional turnover of 954,302.95 DAI. The price action reflected a bearish shift, especially after 19:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

ETHDAI saw a key bearish breakdown from the 4,100–4,130 resistance zone, which had acted as a short-term ceiling multiple times. A long lower shadow and bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 19:30–20:00 ET candle, marking a critical turning point. The 3,820 level acted as a short-term support, with the price bouncing off it twice in the final hours. A doji near the session low at 3,690.47 suggested indecision at that point, though the 3,800 level has since held firm. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent 4,104.73 to 3,651.64 move is at 3,806.83, which appears to be close to the current price action.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward throughout the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, signaling a short-term bearish crossover. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are all trending lower, suggesting a broader downtrend remains intact. ETHDAI has been trading below all key moving averages for the past two sessions, which may indicate continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong bullish reversal emerges.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the late afternoon, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line around 19:45 ET, confirming the bearish shift. The histogram expanded in size during the 20:00–21:30 ET period, reflecting increasing bearish momentum. RSI fell below 30 by 20:30 ET and remained in the oversold territory for most of the session, though it has recently begun to stabilize near 30–35. The RSI divergence with price in the last 3 hours may indicate a potential short-term rebound, but the overall momentum remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp downward move from 4,100 to 3,650, reflecting high volatility. ETHDAI spent a large portion of the session near the lower band, especially after 20:00 ET. The recent rebound to the 3,830 area has brought the price closer to the middle band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The 20-period Bollinger Band width increased from 40 to 100 in the late evening, indicating a sharp contraction in volatility followed by a rapid expansion, which is often a precursor to a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:30–21:00 ET window, coinciding with the sharp decline in price. The highest single candle volume of 23.6583 ETH occurred at 21:15 ET, as the price dropped from 3,873.2 to 3,690.47. Turnover increased in tandem with the price decline, confirming the bearish momentum. However, the last three hours saw a divergence between rising prices and declining turnover, which may indicate weakening bullish conviction as the price approaches key support levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart to generate short signals when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and the price is below the 20-period MA. This was clearly seen during the 19:30–20:00 ET crossover. Combining this with an RSI reading below 30 and a bearish engulfing pattern could help filter for stronger setups. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance level (e.g., 3,845), with a take-profit near the 3,618.44 Fibonacci extension. The strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish trend while limiting exposure to false breakouts. Given the volatility seen during the expansion phase, a trailing stop might also be considered for more aggressive short positions.