Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) on 2025-09-24

• ETHDAI traded in a volatile 24-hour range, opening at 4190.27 and closing at 4170.44.
• The price action shows a bearish reversal with strong bearish momentum evident in late-night and early morning sessions.
• Volume spiked at 4185.03 and 4170.44, highlighting key decision points in the 24-hour range.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, while Bollinger Bands reflected a period of contraction and then expansion.
• The 15-minute chart highlights a key Fibonacci retracement level at 4170.44, suggesting potential near-term support.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4190.27 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4170.44 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 4199.52 and a low of 4082.08. The total traded volume over 24 hours was 169.08 ETH, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $697,000 (based on Dai value). The pair displayed a clear bearish bias, especially in the early hours of the morning.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish reversal from the 4190.69 swing high to the 4144.2 low. A key bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 03:30–04:00 ET as the price moved from 4148.88 down to 4099.89. The formation at 03:30 ET showed a large bearish candle with a 5.74% drop in a single session. A key support level was formed around the 4170.4 level, which was tested multiple times during the 24-hour period and held during the final candle.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both showed a downward bias during the majority of the 24-hour window. The price closed below the 50-period MA for the final candle, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 4170, with the 200-period MA providing a longer-term reference point for potential support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout the session, with the signal line crossing below it around 04:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 in the 04:15–06:00 ET timeframe, entering oversold territory, which could suggest short-term buying opportunities. However, the lack of immediate reversal suggests that sellers remained dominant for the next 12 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction between 22:00–00:15 ET, indicating low volatility, followed by a sharp expansion from 01:00–03:30 ET, marking a period of high volatility. The price remained below the lower band for most of the session, with a brief rebound near the middle band at 07:00–08:00 ET, before resuming the downward trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 01:45–02:30 ET, especially on the candles with large bearish moves from 4189.75 to 4186.43 and 4178.69 to 4177.69. Turnover also saw a sharp rise during the same period, confirming the bearish momentum. A divergence between price and volume was observed around 08:00–10:00 ET, where price continued to fall but volume remained relatively subdued, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the swing high of 4199.52 and the swing low of 4144.2, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels were around 4183.5 and 4166.3, respectively. These levels were tested multiple times, particularly in the 07:00–09:00 ET window. The final 4170.44 close aligns with a key minor retracement level of 4170, indicating a probable consolidation point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical profile of ETHDAI over the 24-hour period, a viable backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position at the 4199.52 high with a stop-loss above the 4189.75 level and a target at the 4166.3 Fibonacci level. The bearish engulfing pattern at 03:30 ET and subsequent volume confirmation suggest that this strategy has a reasonable probability of success, particularly in a market with high volatility and clear trend confirmation. A trailing stop could also be used once the price breaks below the 4170.44 level, capitalizing on potential further bearish momentum.