Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI): 2025-09-21

• Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) closed lower at 4485.29 after a volatile 24-hour session with a 45.56-point range.
• Price broke key support at ~4482.47, then tested lower levels near 4470.0 and 4464.69, showing bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold levels while volume surged near the 4470–4480 zone, indicating potential reversal clues.
• Volatility spiked during the late ET hours, with a sharp drop from 4509.01 to 4480.7, followed by a moderate recovery.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the 4503.6–4495.49 level, confirming downward pressure on ETHDAI.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4503.6 on 2025-09-20 at 16:00 ET and closed at 4485.29 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The 24-hour range spanned from a high of 4509.01 to a low of 4462.32. Total volume for the period was 12.413, with a notional turnover of approximately 54,902.17 DAI (assuming ETHDAI prices in DAI).

Structure & Formations

ETHDAI saw a sharp bearish reversal following a bullish attempt in the early hours of the session. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed around the 16:30–16:45 ET window (4503.6–4495.49), signaling a shift in market sentiment. Price then consolidated in a descending channel from 4509.01 to 4462.32. Key support levels include 4482.47, 4470.0, and 4464.69, with 4462.32 acting as a potential short-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below price levels in the last 6 hours, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20SMA was at ~4483.50 and the 50SMA at ~4486.00. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA sits at ~4480.23, with the 100 and 200-period lines slightly above at ~4482.12 and ~4482.26, respectively. Price is currently below all three.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the late ET hours, signaling a bearish crossover. The histogram has been narrowing after a large bearish bar near the 4480.7–4481.66 level. RSI dipped into the 25–30 range, suggesting potential oversold conditions, but volume failed to confirm a strong bounce. This divergence hints at the possibility of a continuation in the bearish trend rather than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the 4465–4475 range, with price testing the lower band during the 04:15–06:15 ET window. Price has since moved slightly above the lower band, indicating a potential stabilization. The bands remain relatively wide, suggesting continued volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near key support levels (4480–4485) and around the 4465–4475 zone, confirming bearish conviction. Notional turnover also increased during the 04:15–08:45 ET period, particularly in the 4470.74–4480.83 range. The volume and price action appear aligned, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 4462.32–4480.83 swing, the 38.2% retracement level is at ~4473.50 and the 61.8% at ~4478.50. Price appears to have stalled near the 4473.16–4475.26 range, suggesting that the 61.8% level may become a key area to watch for further consolidation or reversal signs.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish momentum and volume confirmation at key support levels suggest a potential short-term continuation of the downtrend. A backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on ETHDAI after a confirmed break below the 4482.47 support level with a stop-loss above the 4486.78 level. Targets could be set at 4470.0 and then 4464.69, with exits triggered on a close above the 20-period moving average. This approach would align with the MACD crossover and RSI divergence seen in the latter half of the session.