Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) on 2025-09-20

• ETHDAI traded in a range between 4454.53 and 4506.99 over the last 24 hours with a bearish bias after hitting a 24-hour high.
• Momentum was mixed with RSI showing oversold conditions but no decisive reversal patterns.
• Volatility increased in the final hours, with a large bullish candle closing near the high.
• A key support level appeared at 4462.05, tested multiple times but not decisively broken.
• Turnover remained moderate, with no clear divergence from price action.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4476.51 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 4501.62 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. The 24-hour range was 4454.53 to 4506.99, with total trading volume of 14.746 ETH and turnover of approximately $65,869.15. Price action showed a gradual bullish bias in the final hours, ending above the mid-range.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour window, ETHDAI showed a distinct range-bound structure with a bearish bias early in the session and a bullish shift in the final hours. A key support area was identified near 4462.05, which acted as a floor for most of the session. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 18:30 ET, confirming a pullback. Later, a bullish harami pattern emerged at the close, signaling potential consolidation. A doji around 03:30 ET indicated indecision during a key retracement phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed twice in the last 6 hours, with the 20SMA rising above the 50SMA to form a bullish golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was above the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. The price closed above the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart, indicating short-term momentum favors the bulls.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish in the final hours, with a positive histogram and a rising signal line, suggesting increasing momentum. RSI reached an oversold level of 30 around 20:00 ET but did not produce a clear reversal. Instead, a gradual recovery followed, with RSI closing near 48, indicating a potential consolidation phase rather than a reversal. Both indicators suggested a temporary pause in bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained moderate until the last 4 hours, where it expanded significantly. ETHDAI closed just below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong bullish momentum in the final 15-minute interval. The bands were relatively wide, showing increased uncertainty. The price did not breach the lower band, suggesting buyers remained active even in the face of a pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume remained moderate for most of the session but surged in the final hour with a 0.0219 ETH volume candle closing near the session high. This confirmed bullish strength in the last 15 minutes. Turnover increased proportionally with price, showing no divergence. The lack of significant spikes in volume suggested a more institutional or sustained buying effort rather than speculative hype.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 4454.53 to 4506.99, the 38.2% level is at 4481.55 and the 61.8% level is at 4499.47. The final close at 4501.62 was very close to the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential exhaustion point. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from the recent swing low appears near 4472.00, acting as a psychological level for buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed patterns and Fibonacci retracement levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a bullish entry near the 38.2% Fib level (4481.55) with a stop-loss placed below 4462.05 and a target at the 61.8% level (4499.47). This aligns with the golden cross on the 20/50 MA and the final bullish harami pattern. The MACD confirmation and RSI recovery also support the strategy. The 4462.05 support level could be used as a dynamic stop-loss for a long position in case of a breakdown. This setup reflects a structured approach to capturing momentum during a consolidation phase.