Market Overview for Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) – 2025-09-16

• Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) broke out above a key resistance area but failed to hold, with volume drying up at higher levels.
• RSI showed overbought conditions mid-day, followed by a sharp divergence, suggesting potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during early ET hours, with a large bullish candle forming after a consolidation period.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the rally, but prices closed near the lower band in the final hours, indicating a possible shift in sentiment.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the top, signaling a possible reversal in the short term.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at 4490.19 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4536.68 and a low of 4428.11 before closing at 4472.86 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 33.53 ETH, and notional turnover was approximately 152,348 DAI.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period revealed a complex price action where ETHDAI broke above a prior resistance level at ~4500 but failed to hold the gains. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 4536.68, followed by a sharp pullback, suggesting a shift in sentiment. A consolidation phase between 4490–4500 preceded a breakout, but the lack of follow-through volume at the top indicates weak conviction in the move. The price eventually settled below the consolidation zone, pointing to potential bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line mid-day, signaling short-term bullish momentum, but this was quickly negated by the pullback. On the daily chart, the 50-period line appears to act as a dynamic resistance, with price closing below both the 50 and 100-period moving averages, suggesting a bearish alignment for the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early ET hours, but the histogram began to contract as the day progressed, indicating a loss of momentum. RSI peaked above 75 around 01:30 ET and then declined sharply below 50 by mid-morning, pointing to potential overbought exhaustion and bearish confirmation. The divergence between price and RSI suggests the likelihood of further downward correction in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, with price reaching the upper band multiple times. However, the closing price of 4472.86 ended near the lower band, indicating a return to the mean and a potential bearish bias. The volatility contraction seen later in the day may foreshadow a break in one of the bands, possibly to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial breakout and again during the late ET hours, but these spikes lacked follow-through in subsequent candles. The largest volume occurred during a sharp pullback between 07:00–07:30 ET, confirming bearish conviction. Notional turnover closely mirrored volume, suggesting genuine price movements rather than wash trading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the swing high at 4536.68 and the low at 4428.11 show that ETHDAI closed near the 61.8% retracement level (~4472.00), which could act as a temporary support. The 38.2% and 50% levels were tested during the retracement, with price holding above the 50% level for only a short period.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern near the 4536.68 high, a short-term bearish backtest strategy could be built on the premise of a reversal in momentum. A potential entry would be triggered after the candle closes below the low of the bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss placed above the high of that candle. The target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~4472.00) and the next support at 4450. This strategy would aim to capture the retracement in a high-volatility environment, with the MACD and RSI divergence offering confirmation of bearish momentum.