Market Overview: Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) - 2025-09-05 24-Hour Analysis

• Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at $4305.25, surged to $4391.13, and closed at $4388.76 with moderate volume and strong bullish momentum.
• Key support levels held near $4270–$4301, while price tested resistance at $4330–$4340 before breaking above $4370 into a new 24-hour high.
• Bollinger Bands showed volatility expansion, and RSI moved into overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the late ET session, with a sharp upward move validating the breakout above key resistance.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest $4320–$4340 may act as critical levels for near-term trend confirmation.

Ethereum/Dai (ETHDAI) opened at $4305.25 on 2025-09-04 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of $4391.13, and closed at $4388.76 as of 2025-09-05 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 21.592 ETH, and notional turnover was approximately $92,538.00.

Structure & Formations

Price action on ETHDAI displayed a clear bullish bias throughout the 24-hour period. A sharp bearish reversal was observed at 16:30 ET when price dropped from $4307.99 to $4290.0, forming a strong bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow. However, buyers retook control post 20:00 ET, forming a bullish engulfing pattern that confirmed a rebound. Key support levels were identified near $4270 and $4301, while price tested resistance at $4330 and $4340 before ultimately breaking above $4370 into a new high.

A doji formed at 03:15 ET, indicating indecision and a possible reversal or consolidation phase. The price then resumed its upward trajectory with strong follow-through volume after 05:00 ET.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed the 20SMA and 50SMA in bullish alignment by the morning of September 5, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. The price remained above both averages, indicating short-term strength. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 200DMA were both trending upwards, supporting the idea that the broader trend is bullish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early morning hours of September 5 and remained in bullish territory, confirming the upward momentum. The histogram showed growing positive divergence, indicating strengthening bullish energy.

The RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) by 07:45 ET, suggesting that the pair may be overextended and due for a pullback or consolidation phase. However, the fact that the RSI remained above 60 despite the overbought condition implies strong demand from buyers willing to push the price higher.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed an expansion in volatility following the price breakout in the late ET session. The price broke out above the upper band, confirming a strong bullish move. This suggests that the market is in a phase of high volatility and potential trend continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively modest during the early part of the period but spiked significantly during the late ET session, coinciding with the price surge. This confirms the legitimacy of the upward move, as higher volume typically validates price action.

The notional turnover also increased sharply during the breakout, suggesting strong participation and liquidity. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price, which implies that the move was broadly supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing (from the low at $4270 to the high at $4391.13), the 61.8% level is around $4342.20, which price tested before continuing upward. This level could act as a critical support/resistance zone in the near term.

On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels align with current support/resistance levels, indicating a potential consolidation or continuation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish momentum observed in the 15-minute and daily charts, a potential backtest strategy could involve a breakout system that triggers long entries when price closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed just below the most recent swing low. The MACD crossing above the signal line and the RSI moving into overbought territory could also be used as confirmation signals for a long bias.

This strategy would aim to capture continuation moves following a breakout, capitalizing on the strong institutional and retail buying pressure observed in the recent price surge.

The forward-looking view for the next 24 hours suggests that ETHDAI may consolidate near $4380–$4400 following the recent overbought RSI readings and the exhaustion of the initial bullish wave. Traders should remain cautious about potential pullbacks and watch for key Fibonacci and moving average levels for re-entry opportunities.

While the trend remains bullish, the risk of a short-term correction exists, particularly if volume subsides or if selling pressure emerges at the overbought levels. Investors are advised to monitor both RSI divergence and volume confirmation for potential trend exhaustion signals.