Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) – October 3, 2025

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $20.14 before retracing to close near $19.58 amid mixed momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions during the peak, followed by bearish divergence as price declined.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide range during the rally, narrowing as pressure shifted to the downside.
• Volume spiked during the bullish breakout but faded during the decline, suggesting weakening follow-through.
• A key support level appears to have formed near $19.50–19.55, with potential for a short-term bounce.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $19.53 on October 2 at 12:00 ET and closed at $19.58 on October 3 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $20.14 and a low of $19.53. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 474,428.87 ETHC, with a notional turnover of approximately $9.39M.

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bullish impulse from 19:15 to 21:15 ET, characterized by several strong green candles and a high-volume push. A key resistance level formed at $20.14, where a bearish reversal candle appeared, suggesting a potential overhead ceiling. On the downside, price found a potential support level near $19.53–19.55, with several consolidating candles hinting at a possible bounce. Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing formation at the peak and a series of doji candles in the late hours, signaling indecision.

Bollinger Bands showed a marked expansion during the bullish phase, with the price reaching the upper band before pulling back. Volatility contracted toward the end of the session as price consolidated near the lower half of the bands. RSI hit overbought territory during the high, then dropped sharply into neutral-to-oversold levels. MACD confirmed the initial bullish thrust but diverged during the pullback, indicating waning bullish conviction. The 20-period moving average provided a temporary reference for short-term traders, while the 50-period line acted as a psychological benchmark for further direction.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the $19.53 low to the $20.14 high identified potential zones of interest at 38.2% (~$19.90) and 61.8% (~$19.72), both of which were tested during the session. The 61.8% level served as a minor support, while the 38.2% acted more as a resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average currently sits above the 100-period line, maintaining a bearish bias in the longer term. However, the 20-period line on the intraday chart crossed above the 50-period line early in the session, supporting short-term bullish sentiment before the reversal.

Looking ahead, ETC/USDT appears to be entering a period of consolidation after a sharp correction from its intraday high. A rebound from the $19.53–19.55 support zone could test the 61.8% Fib level at ~$19.72, while a breakdown below $19.50 may trigger a test of earlier support levels. Given the bearish divergence in momentum indicators and the lack of follow-through buying, a cautious approach is warranted, particularly with the approaching weekend. Traders should also monitor volume patterns for signs of a potential reversal setup.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a 20/50 crossover above a key support level (e.g., $19.53–19.55), with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low. A short position would be triggered on a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the Bollinger Band or a bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD. Given the observed behavior in the 15-minute timeframe, this strategy could be backtested using a 50–100 bar dataset with a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2 to assess performance under similar volatility conditions.