Market Overview: Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) Daily Price Action and Strategy Insights

Generated by AI AgentTradeCipherReviewed byAInvest News Editorial Team
Saturday, Nov 8, 2025 11:57 am ET2min read
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- ETCUSDT fell to $16.76, forming bearish patterns below $18 support with 11% volatility.

- RSI hit oversold levels (20s) and MACD turned negative, signaling potential short-term bounce but bearish bias remains.

- Bollinger Bands expansion and Fibonacci levels highlight $16.50-$16.70 as key support, with $15.50 next target if broken.

- RSI-based backtest strategy (buying below 30) shows potential for rebounds but requires price confirmation to avoid false signals.

Summary
• ETCUSDT declined to $16.44, forming a bearish breakdown pattern on 24-hour charts.
• Volatility expanded with price trading ~11% below 24-hour high.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $18.17 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $16.76 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $18.87 and a low of $16.23 over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume was approximately 3.63 million ETC, while notional turnover amounted to roughly $62.2 million USD, reflecting moderate-to-high volatility and significant downside pressure in the latter half of the period.

The daily structure shows a clear breakdown below key psychological support at $18, with price forming a bearish engulfing pattern after a sharp selloff from the $18.1–18.4 resistance cluster. On the 15-minute chart, a series of lower highs and lower lows reinforced bearish sentiment, with ETCUSDT closing the period near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the $16.23–$18.17 swing.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a crossover of the 20-period and 50-period SMAs in a bearish direction, while the daily chart shows the 50-period SMA crossing below the 100-period SMA, a bearish confirmation. Price remains below the 200-period daily SMA, indicating the broader bearish bias.

The MACD crossed into negative territory and remains bearish, with a weak positive divergence in the final hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. RSI reached oversold levels in the 20s in the final 6 hours, a technical signal that could precede a short-term rebound. However, without a clear reversal candlestick or volume confirmation, a continuation of the downward trend remains likely.

Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, has expanded significantly, with price currently trading near the lower band, suggesting a potential mean reversion trade. However, price remains within a defined downtrend channel, and any bounce may be short-lived without a clear break above $17.50.

The Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart highlight $16.50–16.70 as key near-term support zones. A break below $16.23 would target the next psychological support at $15.50. On the daily chart, a retest of the $17.00–$17.50 range is likely if the RSI bounce plays out. However, the broader trend remains bearish without a convincing break above the $18.00 psychological threshold.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest for ETCUSDT employed a simple RSI-based strategy, entering long positions when the 14-period RSI fell below 30 on a spot pair with USDT. The holding period was capped at three trading days, with no trailing stop-loss or take-profit rules. This strategy is designed to capture potential rebounds in overextended bearish moves, such as the one observed in the most recent 24-hour period. While the RSI currently sits in oversold territory, the success of the strategy would depend on price action confirming a reversal, as seen in prior bear-to-bull transitions during the 2022–2025 backtest window. Further refinements, such as volume filters or trend alignment rules, could improve risk-adjusted returns in volatile markets like ETCUSDT.