Market Overview: Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT)

• Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) traded in a tight range today, with a 15-minute candle high of $16.15 and low of $15.61.
• Price found support at $15.61–$15.74 and resistance between $15.88–$15.93, with a bullish rebound observed in the final 6 hours.
• Notable volume expansion occurred in the late 12-hour window, suggesting accumulation or strategic order flow.
• RSI approached overbought levels briefly before retracing, but no clear oversold conditions were observed.
• The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover near the close, aligning with a potential reversal after a consolidation phase.

Price Action and Formations

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $15.73 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $15.86 by 12:00 ET, with a high of $16.15 and low of $15.61 recorded during the 24-hour period. The price action displayed a consolidation pattern followed by a late-day bullish breakout, with key support at $15.61–$15.74 and resistance at $15.88–$15.93. A notable candlestick formation was a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart at 04:30–04:45 ET, where price surged from $15.69 to $15.76. This suggests increasing buying pressure following a period of indecision.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in a bullish formation late in the 24-hour period, with the 20-period MA rising above the 50-period MA for the first time in several sessions. This “golden cross” signal indicates strengthening upward momentum. RSI, while not reaching oversold levels, approached overbought territory at $16.15 before retracting, suggesting a short-term pause in the uptrend. MACD showed a bullish crossover at 11:45 ET, with the histogram expanding as the 24-hour period closed, indicating renewed bullish conviction.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracement

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the price rebound between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, showing increased volatility and strong conviction in the upward move. The price closed just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the $15.61–$16.15 move, suggesting a potential target for further consolidation or a short-term pullback. Volatility remained elevated during the late 12-hour window, with volume increasing sharply as the price approached the upper Bollinger Band. This suggests aggressive buying during the breakout phase.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

The 24-hour volume amounted to 183,739.43 units, with a total turnover of $2,873,670. The highest volume spike occurred between 04:30 and 06:00 ET when the price surged from $15.76 to $15.92, with over 20,000 units traded in the 15-minute interval around $15.91. The price and volume profile suggests accumulation during the morning hours, followed by a strong breakout in the midday window. Notably, a divergence between the price low and volume low was observed around 20:15 ET, which may indicate bearish exhaustion and a setup for a reversal pattern.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described attempted to exploit oversold RSI conditions (RSI < 30) using a daily timeframe over a four-year period. The analysis showed that ETCUSDT never dropped below the RSI 30 threshold from 2022 to 2025, resulting in no viable trade signals. This implies that ETCUSDT has remained in a relatively stable and non-oversold zone, lacking the price compression needed to trigger the strategy. To improve the hypothesis, one could consider a tighter timeframe (e.g., 4-hour candles) or a lower RSI threshold (e.g., 35 or 40) to increase signal frequency. Additionally, combining RSI with a price drawdown filter could provide a more robust entry condition, aligning with the recent bullish divergence in volume and price action.