Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT)

• Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) dropped from $19.48 to $18.80, a -3.5% 24-hour decline amid moderate turnover.
• Key intraday swings formed a bearish reversal pattern near $19.15–$19.38, suggesting bearish momentum.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 30, while volume surged during the decline, confirming bearish pressure.
• Price tested a 15-minute Bollinger Band squeeze near $19.38 before breaking down.
• A 15-minute engulfing bearish pattern emerged during the $19.15–$19.03 breakdown, signaling further weakness.

The Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) pair opened at $19.18 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded as high as $19.48 and as low as $18.80 before closing at $18.97 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour total volume was approximately 255,245.56 ETC, with a notional turnover of around $4,870,230. The pair is showing bearish continuation and potential exhaustion in key swing areas.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish bias from the $19.15–$19.38 area, with a 15-minute engulfing pattern confirming the breakdown. Notable support levels emerged at $19.00 and $18.80–$18.85, both of which held during sharp declines. A doji formed near $18.90, indicating a temporary pause in selling pressure, though it was not enough to reverse the downward move.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trending lower, with price trading below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sits near $19.10, and the 200-period MA near $19.60, indicating a bearish alignment across multiple timeframes. The 100-period MA has also crossed below the 50-period, signaling a deepening bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart. The RSI hit oversold levels near 30 during the $18.80–$18.85 consolidation, but failed to rebound, suggesting exhaustion in the short term. No strong overbought conditions were observed, aligning with the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

A 15-minute Bollinger Band contraction occurred around $19.38, followed by a sharp break to the downside. Price closed near the lower band on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The daily Bollinger Band remains wide, indicating ongoing volatility but no immediate contraction or breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase, especially between $19.15 and $18.80, with a 15-minute candle at 08:30 ET-1 printing a massive volume of 21,453.89 ETC. Turnover confirmed the bearish momentum, with no notable divergence between price and volume. Liquidity appears to have shifted lower, supporting the current support cluster.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the $18.80–$19.48 swing show key support at 38.2% ($19.10) and 61.8% ($18.85), both of which price tested. The 61.8% level held during the breakdown, indicating a high probability of further consolidation around $18.85–$18.90 if this area is retested.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish reversal and confirmation in key support zones, a potential strategy involves shorting ETCUSDT upon a close below $18.90, with a stop loss above the $19.05 resistance level. A take-profit target could be set near $18.75–$18.70, aligning with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci extensions of the most recent swing. This setup would require a low-risk, high-reward setup with a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.5–2, assuming continued bearish momentum and no sudden reversal in volatility or volume.