Market Overview: Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT)

• ETHECTC/USDT fell from $20.05 to $18.40 over 24 hours amid a sharp volume spike.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volatility remained elevated, with price frequently testing Bollinger Band extremes.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near $20.00, followed by a breakdown.
• Turnover surged to $321k during the 06:15 ET session, confirming the move lower.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $19.95 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $20.05, dropped to a low of $18.40, and closed at $18.50 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 732,218.49, with a notional turnover of $13.9M. The sharp decline was accompanied by a massive volume spike during the 06:15–06:30 ET window.

Structure & Formations

Price action on ETC/USDT displayed a clear bearish bias over the past 24 hours. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the $20.00 level, signaling a potential top. Following this, price broke below a key support at $19.50 and continued lower, finding some temporary support around $18.50–$18.60. The formation of small-bodied candles near $18.50–$18.60 indicates indecision among market participants. A key support at $18.40 appears to have held temporarily, but the absence of a strong reversal pattern suggests further downside is possible.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bearish alignment, confirming the downtrend. On the daily chart, price is trading well below the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish momentum. A Fibonacci retracement drawn from the recent high at $20.05 to the low at $18.40 shows the 61.8% level at $18.66 and the 38.2% level at $19.25. Price appears to be consolidating near the 61.8% level at $18.66, suggesting that a test of this area could trigger a bounce or a further breakdown to $18.38.

MACD and RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart has turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence as price consolidates. The signal line is cutting through the MACD line from above, indicating a potential further move lower. RSI has fallen below 30, signaling oversold conditions, but without a strong bullish candlestick pattern or a reversal in volume, this may not be a reliable trigger for buyers. A sustained move above $18.66 could bring RSI into neutral territory, but until then, momentum remains bearish.

Volatility and Turnover

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as price moved lower, with the 20-period midline at $19.10. Price has been hovering near the lower band for several hours, indicating elevated volatility. A notable divergence between volume and price occurred around $19.80–$19.90, where volume spiked but price failed to make a significant move, hinting at distribution or a false break. The largest turnover of the day occurred during the 06:15–06:30 ET session when price dropped from $18.97 to $18.52, confirming a strong bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying bearish reversal patterns, such as the engulfing candle and a breakdown below key moving averages. It also incorporates RSI readings below 30 as a trigger for potential short entries. The current ETC/USDT price action aligns with this strategy, particularly in the breakdown from $20.05 and the bearish engulfing pattern at $20.00. A confirmed close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $18.66, coupled with a bearish MACD crossover and a RSI reading near 30, could form a high-probability short setup. However, traders should remain cautious of a potential bounce near $18.50–$18.60, where small-bodied candles indicate market hesitation.