Market Overview: Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) 24-Hour Breakout

• Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) traded in a bullish range, closing near its 24-hour high of $18.95.
• Price broke above key resistance levels with confirmed bullish momentum via the RSI and MACD.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band widening, reflecting heightened risk and trading interest.
• A volume surge of 6685.47 BTC confirmed the final 15-minute candle’s bullish close.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential consolidation near the 61.8% level at $18.76.

Opening at $18.53 at 12:00 ET–1, Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) surged to a high of $19.05 before settling at $19.01 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded in a range between $18.32 and $19.05, with a total volume of 197,736.3 BTC and a notional turnover of $3.61M over 24 hours. The price exhibited strong bullish momentum, particularly in the final hours of the period.

Structure & Formations

ETCUSDT formed several bullish patterns including a bullish engulfing pattern at 07:15 ET and a strong bullish trend continuation after breaking above the $18.85 resistance level. A significant support level emerged at $18.76, where the price found buying interest multiple times. A bearish doji formed briefly at 05:15 ET, but was quickly followed by a recovery. The key resistance levels at $18.95 and $19.00 were tested and cleared, indicating strong upside conviction.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed the price above both 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is rising and crossing above the 100 and 200-period MAs, a classic golden cross formation that could indicate a shift to a longer-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive and formed a bullish crossover during the late morning hours, confirming a shift in momentum. RSI climbed into overbought territory, peaking at 72 during the afternoon, suggesting short-term exhaustion. However, the RSI remains above 50, supporting a continuation of the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with the price trading above the upper band during the final hours of the session. This suggests heightened risk but also a strong conviction in the bullish direction. A consolidation phase may follow if the price retests the lower band or the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $18.76.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the afternoon and evening hours, particularly with the 15-minute candle closing at $19.05 seeing a volume of 6,685.47 BTC. Notional turnover also surged, confirming the price action. Divergence between price and volume was minimal, with both metrics aligning in the bullish direction. This suggests strong institutional or large-cap investor participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from $18.32 to $19.05, the 38.2% retracement level at $18.76 and the 61.8% level at $18.94 were both significant. The price has tested and bounced from $18.76 multiple times, and it may consolidate around $18.94 before the next leg higher. The 78.6% level at $19.00 has also become a key psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering long positions on ETCUSDT when price closes above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover. Stops are placed below the most recent swing low, and take profits are set at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Given today’s price action, this strategy would have triggered a long entry after 06:30 ET and exited profitably at the 61.8% level at $18.94. The high volume and RSI confirmation further support the strategy’s effectiveness in the current market environment.