Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) on 2025-10-05

• Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) closed at 19.89, up from 19.25, with a 24-hour high of 20.33 and low of 19.25.
• Momentum shifted from oversold to overbought, with RSI peaking near 70, signaling potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight Asian session, with large-volume candlesticks confirming key breakouts.
• Bollinger Bands showed clear widening, and price spent much of the day near the upper band, indicating strong bullish conviction.
• Volume and turnover aligned with price action, with major spikes confirming bullish breakouts and bearish pullbacks.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at 19.25 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 19.89 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 20.33 and a low of 19.25 over the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 295,130.61, and notional turnover reached $5,859,558. The price action reflected a strong bullish bias driven by high-volume breakouts.

Structure & Formations

ETCUSDT formed a bullish ascending triangle during the overnight Asian session, supported by a horizontal base around 19.40–19.50 and an upward trendline from 19.25. A breakout above the triangle occurred at 19.67, confirmed by a high-volume bullish candle at 19.76. A key resistance level emerged at 20.00–20.10, where the pair tested multiple times during the early European session before forming a bullish engulfing pattern near 20.17. This suggests strong conviction in the bullish direction, with potential for further momentum if the 20.33 high is revisited and held.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels include 19.72–19.76 and 19.60–19.65, with 19.50 as a critical psychological support. Resistance levels to watch are 20.00–20.10 and 20.30–20.35. A bearish reversal could emerge if the price falls below 19.72, but so far, the bullish structure holds firm.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended upward, confirming the bullish bias. Price remained above both lines for the majority of the session, indicating strong momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 EMA lines show a clear bullish alignment, with the 50-period line crossing above the 100 and 200-period lines at the start of the session, signaling an accelerating bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bullish divergence as the line crossed above the signal line near the 19.70–19.75 level and remained positive for most of the session, with a peak around 0.06. RSI climbed to 69–70 during the European and U.S. sessions, signaling overbought conditions and potentially indicating a pullback. However, the price continued higher, suggesting that momentum remains strong and buyers are willing to absorb any short-term corrections.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a clear widening trend during the overnight Asian and European sessions, reflecting growing volatility. Price spent much of the session near the upper band, especially after the breakout above 19.67, indicating strong bullish conviction. A contraction in the bands is yet to appear, which could signal a potential consolidation phase if the 20.10–20.20 range is not held.

Volatility and Channel Breakouts

During the key 2–5 AM ET hours, the bands widened from approximately 19.30–19.60 to 19.60–19.90, with the price forming several large-volume bullish candles that pushed the upper band higher. This dynamic suggests that traders are betting on a continuation of the upward trend, and a further expansion of the bands may indicate stronger follow-through buying.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the key breakout session, with a high of $245,161.10 at 08:15 ET as the pair moved above 20.17. This was followed by a large-volume candle at 08:30 ET as the price retraced slightly but held above 20.10. Overall, volume and turnover moved in line with price, with no significant divergence detected. The lack of bearish volume during pullbacks suggests that the bullish sentiment remains intact.

Turnover Analysis

Turnover spiked at key breakout and consolidation points, confirming the strength of the trend. During pullbacks, turnover remained moderate, indicating that bearish selling pressure has not yet gained significant traction. The continued alignment between price and volume supports the idea that the bullish trend is being actively driven by market participants rather than being a result of short-term noise.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 19.25 to 20.33, the 38.2% (19.84) and 61.8% (20.11) retracement levels were tested. The 61.8% level acted as a key support, and a bullish reversal formed at that level with a high-volume candle. For the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from a previous bearish leg lies around 19.80–19.85, which coincides with the current support level, reinforcing its significance.

Key Retracement Implications

The price is currently trading near the 78.6% retracement level of the prior bullish move. A break above this would signal a new leg higher, with the next Fibonacci target at 20.45. Conversely, a close below 19.72 would bring the 50% retracement level into play as a potential turning point for a bearish correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the alignment of multiple technical indicators—ascending triangles, bullish engulfing patterns, bullish divergences in RSI and MACD, and strong volume confirmation—this presents a favorable setup for a breakout continuation strategy. A backtesting hypothesis could be to enter long on a close above the 20.10 resistance level with a stop-loss below the 19.72 support. The target would be the 20.30–20.35 level, based on Fibonacci projections and prior resistance. This setup would aim to capture the continuation of the bullish trend while managing risk with defined stop levels.