Market Overview for Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• ETHUSDT rose from $20.21 to $21.06, a ~0.42% 24-hour gain with strong momentum in early trading.
• Key resistance confirmed at $20.85, with price retreating after a sharp rally.
• Volatility spiked as price breached Bollinger Band +1σ, while volume surged in the 18:00–04:00 ET window.
• RSI reached 62 during bullish move, hinting at near-overbought conditions but no bearish divergence.
• Price failed to hold above 61.8% Fibonacci level at $20.88, suggesting short-term consolidation ahead.

Ethereum Classic/Tether (ETCUSDT) opened at $20.21 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $20.83 the following day. The 24-hour range was $20.10–$21.06. Total volume reached 722,351.19 with a notional turnover of $14,575,000. Price showed a strong bullish bias driven by momentum and volume spikes during overnight trading.

Structure & Formations

Price formed several key patterns over the 24-hour period. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at the start of the rally, followed by a strong breakout above the $20.85 level. However, a bearish divergence was observed in the latter half of the session with a long upper shadow forming at $21.06, signaling potential profit-taking. A doji candle at $20.94 marked a pause in momentum. A key support level appeared to form around $20.78–$20.80, where price bounced twice after failed attempts to break above $20.91.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA at around 06:00 ET, confirming a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period SMA acted as dynamic support, holding price above $20.60 for most of the session. Daily moving averages suggest a longer-term bullish bias with the 100-period SMA at $20.35 and the 200-period SMA at $20.15.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a strong bullish crossover early in the session, with the histogram expanding during the $20.21–$21.06 upswing. However, the RSI climbed to 62 at the peak of the rally and failed to push into overbought territory (70), indicating a potential correction. The RSI showed no significant bearish divergence, but a flattening histogram suggests a pause in momentum. MACD remains bullish but could signal a consolidation phase if price fails to retest key resistance.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly in the overnight session, pushing price above the +1σ Bollinger Band at $21.06. The bands expanded from a width of ~$0.20 to ~$0.50 during the peak. Price spent much of the session inside the bands but briefly traded at the upper edge. The recent contraction before the breakout suggests a buildup of energy. The lower band remained firm around $20.60, but it has not been tested in the last 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated in the 18:00–04:00 ET period, peaking with a 15-minute candle at 22:30 ET, which saw a volume of 109,226.29. This coincided with a strong move from $20.60 to $20.83. Notional turnover also surged during this period, reaching a 24-hour high of ~$1.3 million on a single candle. However, the last few bullish candles showed a volume reduction despite the price rise, hinting at weaker conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements were applied to the recent 15-minute swing from $20.10 to $21.06. Key levels include 38.2% at $20.75 and 61.8% at $20.88, both of which acted as temporary ceilings. Price failed to close above 61.8% despite hitting the level, suggesting a potential bearish continuation. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader move from $20.15 to $21.06 lies at ~$20.84, which has shown resistance in prior sessions.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish momentum, the volume confirmation during the 18:00–04:00 ET period, and the failed test of 61.8% Fibonacci at $20.88, a potential short-term buy setup emerges when price retraces back to $20.78–$20.80 and holds above the 50-period SMA. A stop-loss below $20.75 and a target of $21.06 (previous high) may offer a favorable risk-reward ratio. This setup aligns with the MACD crossover and RSI momentum, validating the strategy using confirmed support and dynamic moving averages.