Market Overview for Ethereum Classic (ETCUSD)

• Ethereum Classic traded in a narrow range overnight before breaking out to the upside near 04:00 ET.
• Price found temporary support at $21.46 and resistance at $21.76, with no confirmed breakout as of 12:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD showed weak divergence, suggesting momentum remains muted despite higher highs.
• Volume was sparse, with a spike to $9.74 in early morning hours but no significant accumulation visible.
• Bollinger Bands remained narrow until the 04:00 ET breakout, signaling potential volatility resumption.

Ethereum Classic (ETCUSD) opened at $21.73 on 2025-08-27 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $21.76 and a low of $21.46 before closing at $21.71 on 2025-08-28 12:00 ET. Total volume was 39.14, and notional turnover was approximately $842.92 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price remained tightly range-bound for most of the session, forming a series of doji and spinning tops between $21.46 and $21.73. A key breakout candle appeared at 04:00 ET, opening at $21.46 and closing at $21.69 with volume of 9.74. This candle may signal a temporary shift in sentiment. Resistance at $21.71–$21.76 appears to cap further upside, while support at $21.46–$21.69 appears to hold as a floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain close together, reflecting low volatility. The 50-period MA is just below the 100-period MA, and both are slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 100-period MA, with the 200-period MA acting as a key psychological level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line, with a narrow histogram suggesting muted momentum. RSI ticked above 50 after the 04:00 ET breakout but failed to reach overbought territory (above 60), indicating a lack of conviction. Divergence between price and RSI suggests traders remain cautious, with no clear directional bias emerging.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could involve entering long positions on a break of the 04:00 ET high with a stop-loss placed below the recent support at $21.46. Given the weak volume and lack of follow-through, such a strategy may benefit from adding a RSI filter (> 40 for entry, < 30 for exit) to confirm momentum. This approach could aim to capture short-term volatility without overexposing to the market’s range-bound tendencies.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained tight for most of the 24-hour period, signaling low volatility. Price briefly moved above the upper band after the 04:00 ET breakout but quickly retracted into the band’s range. The current upper band is near $21.76, and the lower band is near $21.46. As price remains within these bounds, the market appears to be in a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained near zero until the early morning, when it spiked to 9.74 at 04:00 ET and 11.59 at 08:45 ET. Total turnover increased correspondingly, but no clear price-volume confirmation was seen. The lack of sustained volume during the breakout suggests a potential false signal or a lack of follow-through. Investors should watch for volume confirmation on the next directional move to assess its legitimacy.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $21.46 to $21.76, the 38.2% retracement level is at $21.62 and the 61.8% level is at $21.69. These levels align with the recent price action, with the 61.8% level acting as a key resistance. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the larger swing from recent lows to the 2025 high is near $25, which remains a distant target.

Looking ahead, traders may watch for a decisive break of $21.76 or a retest of $21.46 to determine the next directional bias. Given the lack of volume and momentum confirmation, caution is advised. A sharp countertrend move could test the $21.60–$21.69 range in the coming 24 hours.