Market Overview for Ethereum Classic (ETCUSD) – 2025-09-02

• Ethereum Classic declined by 4.4% over the past 24 hours, closing at $20.70 after a sharp sell-off post 20:45 ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $21.23, confirming a shift in market sentiment.
• Volatility spiked after 20:45 ET, with a 15-minute low of $20.34 and a $0.90 range within 15 minutes.
• RSI hit oversold levels by 06:45 ET, but price failed to rally meaningfully, suggesting weak follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands constricted earlier in the session before a sharp breakout confirmed a bearish bias.

Ethereum Classic opened at $21.23 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-01 and closed at $20.70 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-02. The 24-hour high and low were $21.23 and $20.18, respectively. The total volume traded was 68.83 ETC, and the notional turnover amounted to approximately $1,443.40.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $21.23 on 2025-09-01 20:45 ET, opening at $21.23 and closing at $20.34, a key reversal signal. A strong bearish bias emerged after the candle broke below prior support levels, with the next immediate support at $20.08. A doji formed at $20.08 on 2025-09-02 06:45 ET, suggesting indecision at the lower end of the range. Resistance levels now appear at $20.70–$20.87, with potential for short-term consolidation if buyers step in.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages have both trended downward in line with the price drop. The 20SMA is currently at ~$20.78 and the 50SMA at ~$20.82, both indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are converging below $20.80, confirming a short-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 20:45 ET and has remained below its signal line, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram shows expanding bearish divergence. The RSI reached oversold territory (~28) by 06:45 ET, but failed to trigger a strong rebound, suggesting weak conviction in the short-term. This points to a possible continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong bullish reversal emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted significantly earlier in the session, indicating a period of consolidation before the sharp sell-off. The 20-period band was centered at ~$20.79 with a narrow width of ~$0.06. The price broke down sharply below the lower band, reaching $20.34 in a 15-minute window. The current closing price sits at ~$20.70, still near the lower band but showing some stabilization in the last few hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 20:45 ET, with 2.25 ETC traded during the session that saw the largest 15-minute drop. A further increase occurred at 21:00 ET (4.01 ETC), coinciding with a new low at $20.18. Turnover spiked accordingly, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has since returned to near-zero levels, suggesting reduced participation and weak follow-through. The divergence between price and volume suggests caution for potential buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from $21.23 to $20.34 shows a 38.2% retracement at ~$20.79 and a 61.8% retracement at ~$20.62. The current price of $20.70 is hovering near the 38.2% level and may face resistance or consolidation if bulls take control. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader swing from higher levels is at ~$20.50–$20.60, suggesting a potential target for short-term support if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish engulfing pattern and RSI reaching oversold levels without a strong bounce, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry at $20.70 with a stop loss at $20.90 and a target at $20.50–$20.60, based on Fibonacci levels and the current Bollinger Band positioning. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the short-term bearish momentum while managing risk with a tight stop. The MACD remains negative, and the lack of follow-through volume suggests the trend could extend into the next 24-hour window.