Market Overview: Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) – Volatile 24-Hour Session Ends Downtrend

• ETHARS opened at $7,116,272 and closed 24 hours later at $6,874,486 after a volatile session.
• A sharp intraday high of $7,222,903 was countered by a bearish reversal to $6,969,345, showing mixed momentum.
• Volume spiked at key turning points, with a total 24-hour volume of 2.98 ETH and turnover of $21.2M.
• RSI overbought levels were reached briefly, while Bollinger Bands showed expansion, reflecting increased volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the close, signaling potential downside continuation.

Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) opened at $7,116,272 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at $6,874,486 on October 7 at the same time, with a high of $7,222,903 and a low of $6,796,678. The 24-hour session saw a trading volume of 2.98 ETH and a notional turnover of approximately $21.2 million, indicating active but fragmented participation across multiple turning points.

Structure & Formations

ETHARS exhibited a volatile 24-hour session characterized by sharp directional swings. A strong bullish thrust occurred at 13:15 ET, pushing the pair to a high of $7,222,903, followed by a sharp bearish reversal to a low of $6,969,345 by 13:45 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the session's close, with the final candlestick having a lower open and close that engulfed the previous bullish formation. This pattern suggests continued bearish bias. Key resistance levels appeared at $7,124,000 and $7,222,903, while support levels emerged at $7,097,728 and $6,874,486. A doji formed around $7,123,000 at 04:45 ET, signaling potential indecision.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times, indicating a churning market. The 20-period MA was slightly above the 50-period MA, but this was not consistent, showing erratic momentum. The MACD histogram turned negative after the 13:45 ET reversal, confirming the bearish shift. RSI peaked above 70 during the intraday high and then dropped below 50, entering neutral territory by the session’s end. This suggests that momentum has shifted from overbought to neutral, with no clear signs of exhaustion on the bearish side.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 13:15–13:45 ET bearish reversal, reflecting heightened volatility. The price moved outside the upper band briefly before dropping sharply below the lower band. This expansion indicates a strong shift in sentiment. The bands have since narrowed slightly, but volatility remains elevated compared to the prior days.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked at key turning points, particularly during the 13:45–14:00 ET reversal, where a large volume of 0.12326 ETH occurred as the pair fell from $7,222,903 to $6,969,345. Notional turnover also surged during this period, confirming the bearish move. However, volume dropped off significantly after 15:15 ET as the pair continued to decline, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move. This divergence could be a warning sign that the downtrend may not continue unchecked.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing high of $7,222,903 and the swing low of $6,796,678, the most relevant levels are:- 23.6% at $7,112,600- 38.2% at $7,064,400- 50% at $6,980,300- 61.8% at $6,906,200

The pair closed near the 61.8% retracement level at $6,874,486, suggesting it may test the 50% and 38.2% levels next. These levels could serve as potential targets for short-term bounces or further bearish continuation depending on volume and momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern at the close and the RSI dropping below 50, a strategic approach would be to look for a continuation of the bearish trend. A backtest hypothesis could involve entering short positions at the close of the 15:00–15:15 ET candle at $7,076,053 with a stop-loss placed above the 50% Fibonacci level at $6,980,300 and a take-profit target at the 61.8% level of $6,906,200. This strategy would be reinforced by a MACD crossover into negative territory and a divergence in volume that suggests diminishing bullish participation. If the pair holds below $7,100,000, it could indicate further bearish momentum, making the 61.8% level a key watchpoint for the next 24 hours.