Market Overview: Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS)

• ETHARS dropped 22.6% in 24 hours, forming multiple bearish patterns like bearish engulfing and long lower shadows.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting potential bounce, while MACD remained bearish with negative divergence.
• Volatility surged after 19:00 ET, but volume failed to confirm price action, raising questions about sustainability.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting higher uncertainty, with price testing the lower band as a dynamic support level.
• A key 5800k support held temporarily, but 6128k highs remain distant, pointing to a potential 20% retest.

Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) opened at 5841272.0 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET and closed at 5886112.0 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, reaching a high of 6228204.0 and a low of 5552083.0. The total 24-hour trading volume was 12.19258 ETH, with notional turnover amounting to 72.97 million ARS.

The 24-hour chart revealed a bearish bias with multiple long-bodied bearish candles and a strong sell-off from 19:00 to 21:00 ET, breaking through the 5800k support level. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:15 ET, while a long lower shadow near the 5552083 low suggests potential short-term support. Resistance levels emerged at 5757k and 5800k, where price found temporary bids.

MACD remained negative throughout the session with a bearish crossover in the early hours and failed to reverse despite RSI hitting oversold territory. This divergence suggests caution in interpreting potential bounces. Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the sell-off, with price currently resting near the lower band, indicating heightened volatility and a possible consolidation phase. A retest of the 5785k level may provide a floor for near-term buyers.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 5552083 low to the 6228204 high highlight key potential support at 61.8% (~5930k), 50% (~5890k), and 38.2% (~5850k). The 5800k level has acted as a psychological threshold, and its ability to hold will be critical in determining whether a counter-trend rally gains traction.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy relies on a bearish breakout from a defined range with volume confirmation and RSI divergence as triggers. Applying this to ETHARS, the 5552083–5800050 range was broken decisively with low volume, weakening the signal. However, RSI divergence could have flagged the oversold condition at 5552083. A revised trigger incorporating Bollinger Band squeeze and 20-period EMA crossover would offer tighter alignment with the recent volatility and directional change.