Market Overview: Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) - 24-Hour Analysis

• ETHARS declined from 6929333 to 6869113 over 24 hours, closing below the opening level.
• Volatility spiked with a range of ~68608 to 70007, but volume remained low at 9.65 ETH.
• Momentum indicators signal oversold conditions, but volume divergence raises caution.
• A key support at 6858–6860 was tested, with a potential rebound forming.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, ETHARS opened at 6901736 and reached a high of 7000727 before falling to a low of 6827113, closing at 6869113 by 12:00 ET the next day. Total trading volume was 9.65 ETH, with turnover amounting to ~USD 669.6 (based on weighted average price).

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple bearish patterns including a large 15-minute bearish engulfing at 16:00–16:15 ET, followed by a bearish continuation within a descending triangle from 6914602 to 6860846. The price found temporary support at 6860846, where it consolidated for several hours, but failed to reclaim the 6900 level. A small bullish reversal pattern formed near 6860846, hinting at short-term stabilization.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMA were both bearish, with price below both. The 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, forming a bearish “death cross” during the late evening hours. On the daily chart (inferred from 24-hour movement), the 50 and 200-day SMA would likely be bearish if aligned with this trend, suggesting a bearish bias for near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and diverged with price, while the histogram showed bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold territory (~30) at 03:30 ET, but volume during this rebound was weak, indicating a possible false recovery. The RSI remains near oversold levels, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce—though caution is warranted due to the divergence in volume.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands were in a moderate contraction phase at the beginning of the period, followed by a sharp expansion during the price drop. Price closed near the lower band at 6869113, which could offer a short-term floor if volume supports a rebound. The upper band peaked near 7000727 but failed to hold, reinforcing bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked moderately at 16:00–16:15 ET with a large bearish move from 6901736 to 6936039, but faded afterward, suggesting fading interest. Turnover was low but aligned with price movement during the key bearish hours. Divergence between volume and price during the rebound near 6860846 suggests weak conviction in the short-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 15-minute swing (6829550 to 7000727) showed 61.8% at 6921 and 38.2% at 6864, both of which were tested. The price broke below the 61.8% level, confirming bearish continuation. On the daily chart, if a larger upward trend was in place, 6860846 could represent a key 61.8% retracement support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern and divergence in MACD and RSI suggest a short-term bottom near 6860846–6858064 may be forming. A backtest could evaluate a buy-on-close strategy at 6860846 with a stop just below 6858064 and a target at 6888916 (nearest resistance). The strategy relies on low RSI levels and bearish divergence turning into a bullish reversal on volume confirmation.