Market Overview for Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) - 2025-11-01

• ETHARS posted a 24-hour low of 5,707,849 and closed near support at 5,767,889.
• RSI hovered around neutral levels, with no clear overbought/oversold signals.
• Volatility surged mid-session, but volume remained muted during key breaks.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after a short-term rally in early evening.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before a sharp drop, hinting at potential breakouts.

Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) opened at 5,775,616 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 5,850,000 before dropping to a 24-hour low of 5,707,849. The pair closed at 5,767,889 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 11.47919 ETH, with a turnover of approximately 66.775 million ARS. Price showed a bearish bias, breaking down from key intraday resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart for ETHARS displayed a bearish bias, punctuated by a large engulfing pattern at 19:30–20:00 ET, confirming a reversal from a short-term uptrend. A key support level at 5,707,849 held during a 19:45–20:00 ET drop, though the price failed to show strong conviction, remaining near the floor. A doji at 20:30 ET reflected indecision, with the close near the low. The formation of a potential ascending triangle near 5,707,849 to 5,779,600 suggests a possible breakout either way.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bearish territory as the price declined below the 50-EMA after 19:30 ET. The 50-period EMA held steady at 5,772,000 as a dynamic resistance. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMAs were all trending downward, reinforcing the bearish tone. The price currently sits below all three, indicating bearish control and a lack of immediate reversal potential.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for most of the session, with a small bearish crossover at 19:45 ET aligning with the drop. RSI hovered between 45 and 50 for most of the day, suggesting a neutral zone. A brief dip below 40 was observed, but it lacked confirmation from volume or a strong price reaction. This suggests neither strong momentum nor a clear oversold condition, leaving the market in a holding pattern for now.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 19:30 and 20:00 ET as the price broke through the lower Bollinger Band at 5,707,849. This break confirmed a bearish continuation pattern. Prior to this, the bands had been in a narrow contraction phase, hinting at a potential breakout. The current price sits just below the 20-period band, with no immediate signs of a retest of the middle band. This setup could lead to a test of the 5,650,000–5,700,000 range over the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked briefly at 19:45 ET and 21:45 ET, coinciding with key price breaks but failed to confirm a strong directional move. The overall volume was low for most of the session, especially during the 21:00–00:00 ET period. The 19:45–20:00 ET drop showed increased turnover despite limited volume, indicating possible stop-loss activity or institutional pressure. The divergence between volume and price action suggests caution for near-term directional bets.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 5,707,849–5,850,000 swing, key levels to watch are the 38.2% (5,740,000) and 61.8% (5,769,000) retracements. The current price is near the 61.8% level, which appears to have functioned as a temporary support. A breakdown below 5,707,849 would suggest a move toward the 5,650,000 level. A retest of the 5,769,000–5,775,600 area could offer a potential reversal setup if buying pressure resumes.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based backtesting strategy proposed for ETHARS could provide further clarity on potential short-term entries. Using the classic 14-period RSI with an oversold threshold of 30 and an exit at RSI > 50, the strategy aims to capture short-term mean reversion. Given the muted RSI levels seen during the 24-hour window, the strategy would likely signal a neutral stance or no entry unless a stronger oversold condition forms. Incorporating time-based exits (e.g., holding 5 trading days) would add discipline, especially in a low-volume, mixed-direction market like ETHARS. Price execution on daily close is recommended to align with standard trading conventions.