Market Overview: Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) - 2025-10-22

• Price action showed a sharp bearish reversal from 6.4 million to 6.1 million, with a final close near 6.1 million.
• Momentum weakened in the final hours, as RSI and volume declined while price hovered near support levels.
• Volatility expanded during the early morning session, with large-range candles and a 24-hour high of 6.5 million.
• Bollinger Bands reflected high volatility followed by a contraction toward the final hours of the session.
• No strong bullish confirmation emerged, with Fibonacci and MACD signaling a possible continuation of the downward trend.

Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) opened at 6,378,255 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded between 6,469,941 and 6,050,000 before closing at 6,096,210 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 4.11 BTC-equivalent, with a notional turnover of ~26.05 million ARS. Price action reflected a bearish bias, with a key break of 6.3 million triggering a sharp correction into the lower half of the range.

Structure & Formations

Price structure showed a clear bearish reversal from the intraday high near 6.47 million, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming after 19:30 ET. A key support level at 6.3 million was broken early in the morning, and further selling pressure brought the price down to 6.1 million by midday. Bollinger Bands reflected a wide range for much of the session before contracting near the end, indicating potential consolidation or exhaustion in volatility. A bearish channel is now visible, with resistance near 6.35 million and support at 6.1 million.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are both bearish, with the price below both lines at close. The 20SMA is at ~6.13 million, and the 50SMA is at ~6.14 million. This suggests ongoing bearish momentum with no immediate reversal sign. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at ~6.5 million, and the 200DMA is at ~6.6 million, placing ETHARS well below its long-term averages and in a bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative by early morning, with a bearish crossover of the signal line and a negative histogram. RSI declined to ~30 in the final hours of the session, signaling oversold conditions. However, this did not trigger a rebound, raising the possibility of a continuation of the downward trend. The divergence between price and RSI is weak, with no clear bullish reversal sign.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were wide during the early part of the session, reflecting high volatility as ETHARS traded between 6.4 million and 6.1 million. By the final hours, the bands narrowed significantly, indicating a potential slowdown in momentum. Price closed near the lower band, which is bearish if it remains in that area for the next session. The contraction in volatility may hint at a consolidation phase or exhaustion in the move lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning session with the breakdown below 6.3 million, reaching ~0.63 BTC-equivalent in the 02:30–04:45 ET window. This confirmed the bearish breakout, though volume waned after 05:00 ET as price moved lower. Notional turnover peaked at ~2.6 million ARS during the 02:30–04:45 window, indicating active trading during the key break. The divergence between volume and price after that time suggests weakening conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 6.43 million–6.09 million swing show key support at 6.13 million (38.2%) and 6.10 million (61.8%). ETHARS closed near 6.10 million, with potential for a bounce off that level or a break into the lower band. On the daily chart, a key retracement level at 6.35 million is a potential target for a short-term rebound if the 6.10 million level holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish signals from the engulfing pattern and Fibonacci support levels, a backtest using ETHARS data could explore a short entry strategy triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern at key Fibonacci support levels. For position closure, a 3-day exit rule or a stop-loss at 6.35 million (resistance) could be tested. Short positions would be opened on the close of the signal day, with the assumption that momentum is likely to remain bearish in the near term. This approach aligns with the observed weakening RSI and MACD divergence, supporting the potential for a continuation of the downward trend.