Market Overview for Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) – 2025-10-03

• Price fluctuated between 6.82M and 6.95M, forming mixed bullish and bearish patterns.
• High volatility observed between 17:00 and 18:45 ET-1, followed by consolidation.
• RSI suggests neutral momentum, but volume spikes indicate active short-term trading.
• ETHARS closed near a 24-hour pivot level, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed after peak volume, signaling potential breakout ahead.

Price Behavior and Structure

The 24-hour period for Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) saw price action between a low of 6,829,547 and a high of 6,957,535. The session began at 6,829,547 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 6,861,322 by 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 6.5246 ETH, while total turnover (notional) was approximately $45,333,800. The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern after 16:15 ET-1 and a key bearish reversal pattern at 19:00 ET-1, suggesting conflicting short-term sentiment.

Support and Resistance

Key support levels were identified near 6,829,500 and 6,735,100, with resistance forming at 6,957,500 and 6,925,300. A notable bearish doji appeared at 17:00 ET-1, indicating indecision. A strong bullish trend resumed around 18:15 ET-1, forming an upward channel that ended with consolidation around 6,861,322 at the 24-hour close. A Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level aligned with the 6,861,000 area, suggesting potential consolidation or a short-term reversal.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

MACD indicated a bearish crossover around 17:00 ET-1, followed by a bullish divergence at 19:00 ET-1. RSI moved into overbought territory at 6,957,535 before dropping into neutral range, supporting the idea of a short-term correction. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed at 6,850,716, indicating potential short-term momentum shifts. The daily chart showed a 50-period MA below the 100-period MA, reinforcing bearish bias.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands contracted sharply between 19:00 and 20:00 ET-1, signaling a potential breakout. Price tested the upper band at 6,957,535 before retreating. The narrowing of the bands suggests increased potential for a directional move in the next 24 hours. The bands remained wide during the first half of the session, indicating high volatility before settling into a more defined range.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Trading volume surged at 18:15 ET-1 with a 0.13306 ETH turnover spike and again at 03:15 ET with a 0.37804 ETH volume spike. However, price did not confirm these highs with strong follow-through, indicating potential divergence. The 24-hour volume was unevenly distributed, with over 80% occurring in the first 8 hours, suggesting early speculative activity.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on ETHARS after a bullish engulfing pattern is confirmed, with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the recent volatility and pattern formation, this approach may profit from a rebound off key support levels. Short-term traders might also consider fading the overbought RSI divergence to capitalize on a pullback.