Market Overview: Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) – 2025-09-24 12:00 ET Update

• ETHARS surged to a 24-hour high of ~5,981,668 ARS before consolidating near 5,906,829 ARS.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern formed between 19:30 and 20:00 ET, suggesting momentum shifted to the upside.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the overnight session, peaking at 5,981,668 ARS before retracing.
• RSI remains neutral, with MACD showing bullish momentum, suggesting potential for further upside.
• Turnover spiked during the 24-hour high but fell sharply after, indicating reduced conviction.

Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) opened at 5,793,840 ARS on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 5,981,668 ARS before closing at 5,906,829 ARS on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded with a total volume of 14.17448 ETH and a notional turnover of ~84,600,000 ARS over the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern displayed multiple key turning points, including a large bullish engulfing formation from 19:30 to 20:00 ET, followed by a bearish retracement and consolidation in the early morning. The overnight high of 5,981,668 ARS acted as a pivotal turning point, forming a short-term resistance level. A doji appeared at 23:30 ET, indicating indecision, and a strong bearish reversal pattern emerged as the price fell to 5,862,223 ARS during the 20:45 ET candle. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the overnight high to the 20:45 ET low aligns closely with the 5,906,829 ARS closing price, suggesting a potential support area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price action closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for the final three hours of the session, indicating a potential shift in short-term bias. The 50-period moving average now sits near 5,890,000 ARS, offering a dynamic support level. Over the daily timeframe, a 200-period moving average remains bearish, but the 50-period MA appears to be turning upwards, suggesting a possible near-term bullish crossover in the next 24–48 hours.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the final 90 minutes of the 24-hour period and is currently above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum. The histogram has expanded, showing strengthening upward momentum. RSI moved from the neutral range into the overbought territory (above 65) during the peak at 19:30–20:00 ET and has since pulled back to ~58, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. A bullish divergence in RSI suggests potential for further upside as volume remains relatively low during the recent retracement.

Bollinger Bands

The price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band during the peak at 19:30–20:00 ET, reaching ~1.5 standard deviations above the 20-period moving average. This indicates a significant volatility expansion during the high. The bands have since contracted, with the price trading near the midline and the lower band forming a potential support zone around 5,880,000 ARS. A breakout above the midline could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the peak hours, with a significant spike at 19:30–20:00 ET where nearly 0.63 ETH was traded. This was followed by a sharp drop in volume during the retracement, suggesting short-term profit-taking. Turnover also spiked during the high but fell sharply afterward, creating a divergence with the price action. This divergence suggests reduced conviction behind the recent rally, but the pattern remains consistent with a short-term consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the overnight high of 5,981,668 ARS to the subsequent low at 5,862,223 ARS show the 61.8% level aligning with the 5,906,829 ARS closing price. This suggests the price may be consolidating at a key support level. A break above 5,935,512 ARS (78.6% retracement) could trigger a new bullish wave, while a break below 5,890,000 ARS could test the 50% retracement level and indicate renewed bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when the 15-minute MACD crosses above its signal line and the price closes above the 50-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This aligns with the recent bullish engulfing pattern and the current MACD crossover. A target could be set at the 78.6% retracement level (5,935,512 ARS) or the upper Bollinger Band. The strategy would look to capture short-term momentum while managing risk via a tight stop loss and trailing take-profit levels.