Market Overview for Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) – 2025-09-21

• ETHARS opened at $7,017,258 and closed at $6,954,270, with a high of $7,068,308 and low of $6,920,947.
• Price action formed a bearish reversal pattern, with a 1.05% decline on high volume at key support levels.
• Volatility spiked during the overnight session, with a large-range candle from $6,920,947 to $6,989,741.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 30, while MACD showed bearish divergence and weakening bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands contracted sharply early in the session, followed by a breakout to the downside.

Ethereum/Argentine Peso (ETHARS) opened at $7,017,258 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $7,068,308 before declining sharply to a low of $6,920,947. The pair closed at $6,954,270 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 1.063 ETH, and notional turnover was approximately $7,397,990 (calculated as price × volume). The session featured a significant drop after a short-lived bullish breakout.

Structure & Formations

ETHARS formed a bearish reversal pattern during the late hours of 2025-09-20, marked by a large bearish candle with a wide range from $6,920,947 to $6,989,741. This candle appears to have broken through a prior support level and is followed by a closing cluster near the low, forming a potential dark cloud cover. The structure suggests short-term bearish exhaustion, though the price has yet to find a solid base. A key support area is now forming near $6,920,947–$6,945,941, with resistance at $6,987,957–$6,994,791. A doji formed near $6,987,957, signaling potential indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover, with the 20 MA falling below the 50 MA. This reinforces the downward bias. The 50-period MA currently sits above $6,970,000, while the 20-period MA is closer to $6,960,000. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period MAs are in a downtrend, with the 200-period MA acting as a key bearish trendline near $7,150,000. A bounce above $6,987,957 could test the 50-period MA for a potential retracement.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative during the early hours of 2025-09-21 and has remained bearish, with the line crossing below the signal line. This suggests weakening bullish momentum and growing bearish control. The RSI indicator has moved into oversold territory near 30, but the divergence between the RSI and price action (price continuing lower while RSI flattens) raises the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, the broader trend remains bearish, and a sustained move back above $6,987,957 would be needed to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted sharply in the early hours of 2025-09-20, signaling a period of low volatility. This was followed by a breakout to the downside as the price fell below the lower band. The current price sits within the lower third of the bands, with the midline hovering around $6,975,000. The expansion in the bands since the breakout indicates increased volatility and a possible continuation of the bearish move. A close above the midline would signal a potential retracement, though the broader trend remains bearish.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight session, particularly between 4:30 AM and 5:00 AM ET, with a large transaction at $6,994,791. This volume was not accompanied by a proportional rise in notional turnover, suggesting a possible distribution or wash sale. The price subsequently fell on relatively thin volume, indicating a lack of conviction. Turnover peaked during the sharp decline in the early hours, and the low volume in the morning suggests a period of consolidation and uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent bearish move from $7,068,308 to $6,920,947, the 38.2% level is around $7,001,000, and the 61.8% level is near $6,966,000. The current price of $6,954,270 is just below the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential area of support. A break below $6,945,941 would bring the 78.6% retracement at $6,933,000 into play, and a continued decline could target $6,920,947 as the next key level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on ETHARS when the price closes below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, accompanied by a bearish MACD crossover and a RSI reading below 50. Stops could be placed just above the 20-period MA, while targets would align with key Fibonacci retracement levels below the 61.8% level. This approach would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum while filtering out random noise using the MACD and RSI as confirmation tools. The strategy could be refined by incorporating a volatility filter based on Bollinger Band contraction and expansion to time entries more precisely.

The near-term outlook for ETHARS remains bearish, with the price likely to test key support levels in the $6,920,947–$6,945,941 range over the next 24 hours. A close below $6,945,941 could accelerate the bearish move, with a target at $6,920,947. However, investors should remain cautious as a sharp rebound could occur if the RSI recovers and the price retests the 61.8% Fibonacci level. As always, market conditions can shift rapidly, and a stop-loss should be employed to manage downside risk.