Market Overview for ether.fi/Tether USDt (ETHFIUSDT)

• ETHFIUSDT traded between 1.134 and 1.176, with 1.165 as the 24-hour close.
• Price surged from 1.134 to 1.176 on strong volume, showing clear bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened; RSI approached overbought but did not confirm exhaustion.
• Volume spiked during the 09:00–10:00 ET range, coinciding with a key breakout and reversal.
• A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high may cap near-term upside.

The 24-hour OHLC for ether.fi/Tether USDt (ETHFIUSDT) opened at 1.134 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET and closed at 1.165 on 2025-09-06 12:00 ET, with a high of 1.176 and a low of 1.134. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 8,876,641.4 units, with a notional turnover of ~$10,093,344 (assuming 1 USDT = $1). Price action showed a sharp rally from 1.14 to 1.176, forming bullish candlestick patterns including bullish engulfers and a strong hammer on the 23:45–00:00 ET candle.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified around 1.134–1.138, with price testing these levels before rebounding. Resistance emerged at 1.165–1.167, where price faced a temporary stall in the early hours of 2025-09-06. A notable bullish engulfing pattern occurred on the 20:45–21:00 ET candle, confirming a shift in momentum. A doji formed at 00:15–00:30 ET, suggesting indecision but ultimately giving way to a continuation of the upward trend. A strong hammer appeared at 23:45–00:00 ET, signaling a potential short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

Using the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, price moved above both on the 03:00–03:15 ET candle, confirming a breakout. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA crossover remained bullish, with price above all three indicators. This suggests a continuation of the upward trend may be favored unless a sharp retracement occurs, but no bearish crossovers were observed.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a strong bullish crossover on 02:30–02:45 ET, with the histogram expanding as the trend accelerated. RSI peaked above 70 in the late hours of 09:00–10:00 ET, indicating overbought conditions but not yet showing signs of exhaustion. A moderate pullback may be expected, but as long as RSI remains above 50 and MACD remains bullish, the trend may persist. Divergence between price and RSI was not observed in the last 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the 09:00–10:00 ET window as volatility spiked following the breakout. Price tested the upper band at 1.176 during that time and remained within the bands for most of the period, suggesting that the move was still within the bounds of normal volatility. A potential contraction in the bands may signal a consolidation phase, but so far, no significant contraction has occurred.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 09:00–10:00 ET hour, aligning with a key price reversal and confirming strength. The 20:45–21:00 ET candle also saw above-average volume, supporting the bullish engulfing pattern. Notional turnover increased in tandem with price, indicating a lack of divergence. A key divergence may be flagged if volume declines while price continues to rally, but for now, price and turnover are in alignment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 1.134 to 1.176, the 38.2% level is at 1.156, and the 61.8% level is at 1.166, which aligns with the current price level. Price may find resistance near 1.165–1.167 in the short term, which could trigger a pullback toward the 50% level at 1.155. If the trend continues past 1.166, the 78.6% level at 1.173 could be the next target.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on capturing momentum-driven breakouts on the 15-minute chart, using a combination of moving averages and candlestick patterns to enter and exit positions. Specifically, a long signal is triggered when the 20 MA crosses above the 50 MA and is confirmed by a bullish engulfing or hammer pattern. A stop-loss is placed below the recent swing low, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the current price above both 20 and 50 MA and the presence of a bullish engulfing pattern, the conditions for entry were met during the 20:45–21:00 ET candle. The trade would have captured much of the upward move with a well-defined risk-reward profile. This strategy aligns well with the current ETHFIUSDT price action, particularly during the 09:00–10:00 ET breakout and the subsequent continuation.