Market Overview for Ether.fi/Tether (ETHFIUSDT): October 4, 2025

• Price declined from 1.829 to 1.755 before recovering to close near 1.813 at 12:00 ET.
• Key support tested at 1.74–1.76, with bearish breakdowns followed by consolidation.
• Volatility surged mid-day, with volume peaking at 1.3M at 5:15 PM ET.
• RSI showed overbought conditions briefly in the late session; no strong divergence noted.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early morning sell-off and narrowed on consolidation.

At 12:00 ET on October 4, 2025, the ETHFIUSDT pair opened at 1.802, reaching a high of 1.829 and a low of 1.732 before closing at 1.813. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 29,828,351.1, with a notional turnover (amount × price) of approximately $51.5 million. The market showed a distinct bearish thrust early in the morning, followed by a gradual recovery in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish breakdown below 1.76–1.77 support in the early hours, followed by a strong rally into the afternoon. The low of 1.732 formed a potential short-term floor, with a hammer-like pattern forming as price bounced. Notable bearish engulfing patterns were observed in the first hour of the morning, while a bullish reversal pattern emerged at 1.76–1.77 as volume increased. A key resistance level at 1.80–1.81 was tested twice, with the second test confirming a stronger bullish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved above both 20 and 50-period SMAs after 7:00 AM ET, indicating a potential short-term bullish shift. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period SMAs crossed into bullish alignment late in the session, with the 200-day SMA acting as a long-term reference point. A sustained close above 1.82 could confirm a stronger medium-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory around 8:00 AM ET and remained above zero for much of the session, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) briefly in the late session, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. No clear overbought divergence was seen, but bearish divergence occurred during the early morning sell-off, hinting at exhaustion in the downward move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded dramatically during the early sell-off, with price reaching the lower band at 1.732. As buying interest returned, bands narrowed, indicating a period of consolidation. Price has since reentered the upper half of the bands, with a close above the upper band at 1.829 signaling renewed volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.3 million at 5:15 PM ET during the breakdown to 1.76, but buying volume increased significantly in the afternoon, with volume peaking again near 1.81–1.82. Turnover increased in tandem with price, showing no divergence in the late rally. The morning breakdown had strong volume, confirming bearish sentiment, but afternoon buying showed strong conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the morning low of 1.732 to the high of 1.829 showed key retracement levels at 1.763 (38.2%) and 1.786 (50%). Price consolidated near 1.785 before breaking out toward 1.81, suggesting potential for further upward movement. The 61.8% level at 1.805 was briefly tested, with a close above that level indicating stronger bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on a breakout of the 1.805–1.815 range with volume confirmation. A long entry on a close above 1.813 with a stop below 1.786 and a target at 1.829–1.837 would align with the current price structure and recent momentum. This approach uses confluence of key Fibonacci levels, volume spikes, and bullish RSI to define a high-probability trade setup. Traders may look for a retest of 1.813 as a possible entry point.